October brought a welcomed shift from the steady decline in sales volume we’ve seen in recent months . Sales volume for both Detached & Attached properties combined increased from 873 sales in September to 1,195 in October, marking a 37% month-over-month increase. This improvement makes October the 10th lowest October in the past 20 years, which, while still historically low, represents a positive shift from the near-record lows we’ve been experiencing.

For context, September ranked as the 5th lowest September in 19 years of data tracking, following an August that ranked as the 4th lowest and a July that was the 3rd lowest for their respective months. While there is still a long road to recovery, this uptick in October is a promising change.

Additionally, the number of new listings remains relatively stable, offering a slight reprieve for current sellers in what has been a highly challenging market. This shift in sales activity is especially refreshing given how slow the market has been, and it may hint at better conditions ahead. 

October saw a decrease in active listings from 7,258 down to 6,849, representing a 5.64% decline. While this decrease is notable, it’s important to highlight that this still ranks as the third highest October on record for inventory, indicating that overall supply remains very high – particularily in condos where we see some of the highest inventory or THE highest inventory ever still in areas such as Surrey and Willoughby.

Sales Ratios 

Sales ratios (the percentage of active listings that sell in any given area) increased from 12% to 17.4% in October, marking a welcome boost in overall market activity.  However, it’s important to keep in mind that this improvement varies greatly depending on the price point and property type. While this increase is a positive sign, some areas are still experiencing single-digit sales ratios, especially in segments such as condos, where sales ratios hover close to or within high single digits. This disparity highlights the importance of understanding specific market dynamics, as demand remains much stronger in the lower to mid-price ranges compared to the luxury segment, which continues to see more limited buyer interest.

Here’s my quick (okay, not so quick! ) outlook for October:

Despite the four consecutive rate cuts—including a significant 0.5% reduction, the largest since the pandemic began in 2020—the market remains saturated with sellers, especially in the condo segment . Sale-to-active ratios have dipped to near-record lows, with luxury and high-priced properties experiencing sales ratios in the low single digits. This influx of listings continues to exert downward pressure on prices .

Looking ahead, we have two major announcements from the Bank of Canada on December 11th and January 22nd. Many top economists are forecasting another 0.25% rate cut at least once before the year ends, with more optimistic predictions suggesting a potential 0.5% to even 0.75% cut by January. However, recent developments have added uncertainty to these forecasts. This week, it was revealed that the Canadian government had miscalculated the GDP, underreporting it by 1.3%. This discrepancy has led to discussions about potentially slowing the pace of rate cuts. Additionally, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the U.S. economy is stronger than previously thought, reducing the anticipated need for rate cuts there. It’s important to note that the United States has a GDP per capita approximately 50% higher than ours, and we have recently fallen to GDP levels comparable to those in 2014.

Regarding rental properties, the market remains challenging for investors. Until interest rates drop closer to 2.5% or at least 3%, we won’t see the average investor returning to purchasing resale condos. Currently, in BC, with rates around 2.5%, investors can at least break even, which has been the norm here in the province for years. But with rates remaining higher than that, cash flow on rental properties is still deeply negative , making it much less desirable to own or acquire rental properties .

With more rentals hitting the market and prices continuing to soften , we may see further downward trends before things stabilize.

I hope you found this forecast helpful!  As always, feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss your personal real estate situation . I’m here to help! And if you’re curious about how much YOUR home is worth, contact me today for a no-obligation home evaluation!