Hey Friends and Clients!
I hope you all had an amazing November and are off to a great start this December! December is shaping up to be an eventful month, with some major changes on the horizon. On December 15th, new government policies will allow people to borrow more money than ever before, holding record-high debt levels. The Federal Government has increased the insured mortgage limit from $1 million to $1.5 million and reduced down payment qualifications by over 50%. For example, a $1.5 million home now requires only a $125K down payment instead of the previous $300K! Additionally, amortization periods are extended from 25 years to 30 years, offering either a 12% payment reduction or an increased buying power of 12%.
For a complete list of all the new down payment rule changes, I’ve made a video here:
https://youtube.com/shorts/k6KPaEgGinU?si=bM7iVEvoyqBX7COk
👇Screen shot
Let’s jump into the latest market stats and insights. There’s a lot to unpack, so here we go! 
November Highlights
November marked the eighth consecutive month of decline in the Housing Price Index (HPI) for Detached & Attached properties, including Houses, Townhomes, Condos, Duplexes, and Rows in the Fraser Valley. However, it was the 9th slowest November in 20 years, a slight improvement from last month.
Sales volume decreased from 1,195 units in October to 1,011 units in November, representing a 15.4% month-over-month drop. This slowdown indicates ongoing challenges for sellers despite some positive shifts in policy and buyer power.
Key Stats for November:
- HPI price fell from $971,700 to $969,500 (combined Attached & Detached), representing a 0.23% month-over-month decline.
- Prices remain the same as they did in October 2021, erasing nearly three years of appreciation.
December Market Watch
December is already shaping up to be an intriguing month, with an interest rate announcement expected on December 11th. Opinions are divided on whether we’ll see a rate cut or if rates will hold steady. Either way, these decisions will heavily impact affordability and market activity heading into 2024.
Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate this dynamic market together! In the meantime, here’s a quick recap of price changes over the last year:
Price Change Recap:
- November 2024: -0.23%
- October 2024: -0.7%
- September 2024: -1.4%
- August 2024: -0.7%
- July 2024: -0.3%
- June 2024: -0.5%
- May 2024: -1.0%
- April 2024: -0.2% (revised from +0.5%)
- March 2024: +1.4%
- February 2024: +0.9% (previously recorded incorrectly as +3.7%)
- January 2024: -0.3%
- December 2023: -1.5%
- November 2023: -1.1%
- October 2023: -1.4%
Sales Volume
November brought a decline in sales volume, which is typical for this time of year, even in normal markets. 
The sales volume for both Detached & Attached properties combined decreased from 1,195 in October to 1,011 in November, representing a 15.4% month-over-month drop.
For context, November ranked as the 9th slowest November in the past 20 years, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous months:
- October was the 10th slowest October in 20 years.
- September was the 5th slowest September in 19 years of data tracking.
- August was the 4th slowest for its month.
- July came in as the 3rd slowest for its respective month.
While the market remains slow, this seasonal decline in November isn’t unexpected. It continues to reflect the broader market trends we’ve been tracking throughout the year.
Active Listings
November saw a decline in active listings, dropping from 7,030 in October to 6,441 in November, representing an 8.38% decrease month-over-month. While this decline may seem notable, it’s important to highlight that November still ranks as the 5th highest inventory for the month on record, compared to October, which was the 3rd highest October on record for inventory. Some might call that a small improvement, LOL. 
For context, this past November 2024 recorded the highest number of condo listings ever in any November. Unfortunately, the condo market continues to face significant challenges, particularly in areas such as Surrey and Willoughby, where we’re seeing some of the highest—or even record-breaking—inventory levels.
Additionally, November also marked the 4th highest month of condo listings ever recorded in the Fraser Valley, further emphasizing the imbalance in supply and demand.
Sales Ratios
Sales ratios (the percentage of active listings that sell in any given area) decreased from 16.9% in October (originally reported at 17.4%) to 15.7% in November, reflecting a slight dip in overall market activity. While these ratios remain low overall, it’s important to note that they can vary significantly depending on price point and property type.
For example:
- Condos continue to struggle, with sales ratios hovering close to 10% in several areas
- Lower to mid-price ranges tend to see stronger demand, while the luxury segment continues to experience limited buyer interest.
This highlights the importance of understanding specific market dynamics, as sales ratios provide a clearer picture of how challenging the market is for sellers in certain segments.
My Forecasting
Here’s my quick (okay, not so quick! 
) outlook for December:
While another rate cut is likely coming either this month or in January—possibly another 0.25%—it’s clear these cuts aren’t the only factors driving the market. Two of the biggest mortgage rule changes ever are happening this December:
- Borrowers can now qualify for mortgages up to $1.5 million with less than half the down payment previously required.
- For example, a $1.5 million home now needs only a $125K down payment, down from $300K!
- Amortizations extended to 30 years, offering either a 12% payment reduction or a 12% increase in purchasing power.
These monumental shifts will have a huge impact, particularly for mid-market homes, and are likely to play a much larger role in shaping buyer behavior than the modest rate cuts we’ve seen so far.
On the other hand, recent developments add some uncertainty. The Bank of Canada faces conflicting signals:
- A 1.3% GDP discrepancy revealed earlier this month highlights underreporting, which could slow the pace of rate cuts.
- At the same time, the unemployment rate rose again to 6.8%, a sign of cooling in the labor market.
These opposing factors make it hard to predict the Bank of Canada’s next move, though they’ll likely weigh both carefully before the December 11th announcement.
Rental Property Outlook
The rental property market remains tough for investors. Until interest rates drop closer to 2.5% or at least 3%, the average investor won’t be returning to purchasing resale condos. Currently, with rates near 2.5%, investors could at least break even, which has historically been the norm in BC. However, with rates still higher than that, cash flow on rental properties remains deeply negative , making it less desirable to own or acquire rental properties.
With more rentals hitting the market and prices continuing to soften 
, further downward trends may be on the horizon before the market stabilizes.
I hope you found this forecast helpful! 
As always, feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss your personal real estate situation 
. I’m here to help! And if you’re curious about how much YOUR home is worth, contact me today for a no-obligation home evaluation! 
