Let’s be real—Canada’s not winning this trade war. The U.S. is throwing down hard with tariffs, and our response is looking weak and pretty much ineffective. It’s a one-sided battle, and Canada’s attempts to counter-tariff have been way too little, way too late.

What’s Changed Since Last Month?

March was about speculation. April is about getting hit with the hard truth. The U.S. has the upper hand by far, and Canada’s struggling to keep up. Here’s what’s gone down:

The New Tariff Landscape: U.S. Tariffs & Canada’s Response
 10% Blanket Tariff on all imports to the U.S. – Took effect on April 5, 2025.
 25% Auto & Auto Parts Tariff – Now officially hitting a crucial piece of the Canadian economy.
 Steel & Aluminum Tariffs – Fully confirmed, with supply chains already feeling the pressure.
Canada Fires Back – $30B in retaliatory tariffs are live, but they barely scratch the surface compared to what the U.S. is pulling.
 Vehicle Tariffs in Retaliation – Canada’s throwing punches, but it’s not making much of a dent.

No sugarcoating it—it’s a mess. And Canada’s not looking strong here.

How This Is Messing With Real Estate Right Now

 Economic Volatility → Buyer Uncertainty & Supply Chain Chaos

 Increased import costs are pushing prices higher across several industries.
 Canadian manufacturers are already bracing for layoffs and reduced productivity.

 Cost of Living Spikes → Bank of Canada Steps In
Inflation’s still a big deal, but with the economic strain from tariffs, the Bank of Canada just made a 0.25% rate cut on April 5, 2025. The overnight rate now sits at 2.75%, right in the neutral range.

Construction Prices Keep Climbing → Housing Affordability Takes Another Hit

Steel and aluminum tariffs are boosting construction costs. Developers are pulling back on projects, which is only going to make affordability worse.

Is There a Way Out of This?
There are three big theories about where this is heading:
  Short-Term Issue: Some say Canada will find a way to negotiate concessions and move past this.
 Permanent Damage: Others think the U.S. is going to keep these tariffs rolling, and Canada’s not in a position to push back effectively.

Political Blame Game: People are blaming everyone from the U.S. administration to Canadian leadership for putting us in this mess.

And depending on who wins the federal election, both parties have an entirely different approach that could lead to an entirely different outcome.

Whatever the reason, the results are clear:

 Buyers are holding back.
  Sellers are flooding the market.

---

If you’re feeling the pressure, you’re not alone. 

 Keep reading for the numbers.

Check out my latest post on check out my latest post on Pierre’s Capital Gains Plan: 

---

March Highlights

March marks the second consecutive month of price appreciation, breaking a streak of 10 consecutive months of decline. But before we dive in, let’s clear up a reporting error from the board that affected the February numbers. Sometimes they adjust the stats, and it’s important to set the record straight.

Correction from February:

 Previous HPI Reported: $962,500 Corrected HPI: $970,300

Now, we’re looking at two months of price growth—but calling it growth might be generous. Here’s what actually happened:

March HPI Update

HPI: $974,400

Increase: From $970,300 to $974,400

Percentage Increase: Approximately 0.42% month-over-month. (From February to March)

Sales Volume – March 2025 Update

  February Sales: 802 (corrected from previous reports)
 March Sales: 934

 For the month of March, this was the second slowest March on record, with only March 2009 being slower. That’s a 16-year low.

 And here’s the kicker: when you adjust for population growth, it’s even worse. With the massive influx of new residents pouring into the Fraser Valley—especially considering recent record-breaking immigration numbers—this sales volume is a complete flop.

On a per capita basis, it’s the lowest it’s ever been in recorded history by a long shot. Let that sink in.

---

Price Change Recap: 

• March 2025: +0.42% 
• February 2025:  +0.92%  (previously recorded as a 0.24% decrease)
• January 2025: -0.02%
• December 2024: -0.46% 
• November 2024: -0.23% 
• October 2024: -0.7% 
• September 2024: -1.4% 
• August 2024: -0.7% 
• July 2024: -0.3% 
• June 2024: -0.5% 
• May 2024: -1.0% 
• April 2024: -0.2%  (revised from +0.5%)
• March 2024: +1.4% 
• February 2024: +0.9%  (previously recorded incorrectly as +3.7%)
• January 2024: -0.3% 
• December 2023: -1.5% 
• November 2023: -1.1% 
• October 2023: -1.4% 

Sales Volume – March 2025 Update

 March 2025 was the 2nd slowest March in 20 years, with only March 2009—right after the Great Financial Crisis—being slower. That’s a massive red flag.
 When you add March to the list of slow months, it’s a clear sign that the market’s struggling. The numbers just keep getting worse when you look at them over time.

To put things in perspective: 

March 2025: 2nd slowest March in 20 years (Only March 2009 was slower)

February 2025: 3rd slowest February in 20 years

January 2025: 10th slowest January in 20 years

December 2024: 9th fastest December in 20 years

November 2024: 9th slowest November in 20 years

October 2024: 10th slowest October in 20 years

September 2024: 5th slowest September in 19 years

August 2024: 4th slowest August in 20 years

July 2024: 3rd slowest July in 20 years

This isn’t just a seasonal slowdown—it’s a troubling pattern of declining demand. With sales volume this low, it’s probably one of the worst times to be a seller, especially with no end in sight.

Sellers are facing tougher conditions than they have in years. The market remains hesitant, and the outlook is anything but promising.

Active Listings – March 2025 Update

 Total inventory for March hit 6,923, up from 6,135 in February.

 This represents the highest inventory for the month of March in the last 20 years. Even through some of the worst markets, there’s never been a March with inventory this high.

Condo Market – Inventory Explosion Continues

 Condo inventory skyrocketed from 2,122 in February to 2,309 in March.
 This is officially the highest March on record for condo listings by a landslide.
 It’s also the highest month on record ever for condo inventory, period. No other month in history comes close to these numbers.

This is the most imbalanced market we’ve seen for condos, very much a buyer’s market. When inventory is at record highs with no real demand to match, it’s a recipe for prices to fall further.

The numbers speak for themselves: the Fraser Valley real estate market is in serious trouble. Sellers are fighting an uphill battle, and with no end in sight, it’s only getting worse.

COMBINED INVENTORY

CONDO INVENTORY

Sales Ratios- March 2025 Update 

Sales ratios—a key measure of market activity—remained nearly stagnant in March, increasing only slightly from 13.1% in February to 13.5% in March. Ironically, that’s the same level as January, which means we’re essentially spinning our wheels.

 March 2025: 13.5% (No meaningful improvement from February’s 13.1%)
 This ties March 2025 with previous lows as the second lowest March on record for sales ratios outside of 2009.

What This Means for the Market

 We are still stuck in a firm buyer’s market.
 Condos continue to struggle as demand remains weak across multiple price points.
  Lower-to-mid price ranges still see some movement, but luxury properties remain painfully slow..
 Buyers have more options than ever, while sellers are facing increased competition and longer days on market.

Sales ratios are one of the clearest indicators of market sentiment. And right now? It’s telling us the same story: Buyers are in control, sellers are struggling, and nothing’s turning around anytime soon.

Where Does the Market Go from Here?

The last rate cut by the Bank of Canada wasn’t felt by anybody. It’s going to take multiple cuts—likely at least another 1% total—to start stabilizing prices.

But here’s the truth: This is bigger than interest rates. It’s going to come down to who becomes Prime Minister and what NAFTA 3.0 looks like when Canada, the U.S., and Mexico renegotiate the trade deal.

The tariffs right now are going to be around for some time and are unlikely to be removed unless there’s a deal that massively benefits the U.S. They have the upper hand, and I can’t see them doing anything that would give us a lifeline unless they’re getting something big in return.

And let’s be honest—regardless of who’s in power, the Canadian economy has been eroding for the last decade. Our GDP growth per capita over the past 10 years is only 1.4%, compared to the U.S., which has increased over 20% in the same period.

Even if a new government comes in, it’s going to take more than four years to fix what’s been damaged over the last decade.

This is being called the Lost Decade for a reason. The next trade agreement and the leadership of Canada are going to be the deciding factors. Until then, it’s a volatile, fragile market with no obvious end in sight.

So everyone—stay tuned. Because what happens next is going to define the market for years to come.

---

I hope you found this forecast helpful!  As always, feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss your personal real estate situation . I’m here to help! And if you’re curious about how much YOUR home is worth, contact me today for a no-obligation home evaluation!