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🏡🔴With prices ALREADY on the decline since July📉, and sales ratios nearly record low in many areas 📉, we still have 60% of the outstanding Mortgage Debt 💸in this country up for renewal between now and 2026 😅😬!
🔴According to The Economist in this CTV Interview, David Macdonald, interest rates will remain “higher, for longer.” and for that reason, his concern is that the 60% of Canadians thatbwill be renewing their mortgages between now and 2026 and will be in for a very substantial increase to their mortgage payments. In his estimation this could be very devastating
🔴Some of The Economist who have the rosiest picture of what the future might be like suggest that rates will come down substantially in 2025 and that the distribution of a lot of the mortgages will likely be spread out and not as impactful as some people think. And because they forecast the interest rates being lower in 2025 and 2026 they feel that those years won’t be so bad for renewals.
🔴Many other economists are more concerned and forecast interest rates to be higher for longer like The Economist from this video, and forecast the renewals to come soon and cause a spike in inventory as more people have to list their discretionary rental properties which have more negative cash flow as well as people unable to afford their primary residences causing prices to drastically fall,
🔴While it’s hard to have a crystal ball and know exactly what the bank of Canada’s policy will be, as there is no Accurate Way of predicting future inflation and other economic factors, I personally have an opinion somewhere in the middle. While I share David’s Outlook that interest rates will be much higher for longer, I am more optimistic that the amount of mortgage renewals will be spread out between now and 2026, as opposed to all at once. There was a stat from the Bank of Canada in July that 66% of Mortgage Debt was still left for Renewal and seen that now they are saying it’s 60% at chartered banks as another data point makes me think this might be a more gradual renewal timeline. That being said prices have fallen dramatically… *DM on Instagram FOR REST OF OPINION * or email corbin@callcorbin.ca