Hey Friends,
Before we dive into the full market update, I’ve got three big stories worth your attention right now:
👉🏻 First, sellers are waving the white flag as cancelled listings pile up.
👉🏻 Second, it’s not just people leaving Canada—we’re losing billions in capital too.
👉🏻 And third, 1 in 5 BC small businesses say they won’t survive the next 12 months if nothing changes.
I recorded three quick videos breaking each of these down, and you can check them out below.
👇🏻 1. Sellers are waving the white flag 🏳️
2. Canada’s Net Capital Outflows 💸
3. 1 in 5 BC Businesses Won’t Survive 📉
I’m just gonna get right to the numbers.
📊 Fraser Valley Market Update — August 2025
We’re now at five straight months of HPI price decline since the spring peak.
💸 Prices:
Dropped again, from $944,800 in July to $936,200 in August
That’s an $8,600 drop in one month and nearly $40,000 gone since AprilWe’re now tied almost exactly with the lowest point of 2022—right after those 8 consecutive interest rate hikes.
August 2025: -0.91% 🔴
July 2025: -0.75%🔴
June 2025: -1.21%🔴
May 2025: -0.98% 🔴
April 2025: -0.17% 🔴
March 2025: +0.42% 🟢
February 2025: +0.50% 🟢 (updated)
January 2025: 0.00% 🟡
December 2024: -0.46% 🔴
November 2024: -0.23% 🔴
October 2024: -0.7% 🔴
September 2024: -1.4% 🔴
August 2024: -0.7% 🔴
July 2024: -0.3% 🔴
June 2024: -0.5% 🔴
May 2024: -1.0% 🔴
April 2024: -0.2% 🔴 (revised from +0.5%)
March 2024: +1.4% 🟢
February 2024: +0.9% 🟢 (corrected)
January 2024: -0.3% 🔴
December 2023: -1.5% 🔴
November 2023: -1.1% 🔴
October 2023: -1.4% 🔴
That’s 17 red months out of the last 23.
And yet the narrative out there still pretends prices are “stable.” The charts tell a very different story.
🏡 Sales Volume – August 2025 Update
📉 August 2025 just clocked in at 834 sales — the second slowest August on record since the 2008 financial crisis.
For comparison:
✅ August 2021 hit 1,868 sales — the busiest August on record.
❌ August 2025? Less than half that level.
July was already weak at 1,055 sales, but this confirms the slowdown isn’t letting up.
This is supposed to be peak summer selling season. Instead? The market is barely moving.
📌 To put the slowdown in perspective:
- August 2025: 2nd slowest August since 2008
- July 2025: 2nd slowest July in 20 years
- June 2025: Slowest June on record
- May 2025: Slowest May (excluding 2020) in 20 years
- February 2025: 3rd slowest February in 20 years
- January 2025: 10th slowest January in 20 years
- December 2024: 9th fastest December in 20 years
- November 2024: 9th slowest November in 20 years
- October 2024: 10th slowest October in 20 years
- September 2024: 5th slowest September in 19 years
- August 2024: 4th slowest August in 20 years
- July 2024: 3rd slowest July in 20 years
📉 This isn’t an outlier. It’s a pattern.
Buyers are waiting. And now, sellers are finally adjusting their prices…
📈 Active Listings – August 2025
Inventory dipped again… but don’t celebrate just yet.
🔷 Listings dropped slightly from 8,070 in July to 7,870 in August — a 2.5% decline
🔷 Still, this marks the 2nd highest August on record, just behind 2008
🔷 In fact, it’s now the 7th highest inventory month ever in the Fraser Valley
👀
And remember: almost 1 in 5 listings came off the market in August because sellers couldn’t get their price. They delisted with hopes to relist in spring for more. I’m skeptical they’ll be looking at a much better situation.
The pressure is building — and it’s showing.
🏢 Condo Market – Still Choking on Listings
Another slight dip… but the numbers are still brutal.
➡️ 2,485 active condo listings in August — down just 1.9% from July’s 2,533
➡️ That still makes August the highest August on record for condo inventory
➡️ Only May, June, and July 2025 have ever been higher
📅 Sept 2024: 2,195 — record at the time
📅 June 2010: 1,996 — decade-high
📅 August 2025: 2,485 — well past both of those
Why? Same trap, still snapping shut:
🔻 Sales are weak
🔻 Condo values down 15–20% from peak
🔻 Interest rates still brutal
🔻 Negative cash flow eating people alive
Can’t sell without bleeding. Can’t hold without burning.
CONDO INVENTORY ⬇️
📊 Sales Ratios – August 2025
Sales ratios dropped hard in August — and the weakness is spreading.
🔻 Overall market: fell from 13.0% in July to just 10.6% in August
🔺 Condos: plunged from 14.0% to 10.2% — one of the sharpest drops we’ve seen in years
This is one of the softest environments for condos since 2015.
What This Means:
✔️ Still clearly a buyer’s market
✔️ Investor-owned condos are under the most pressure
✔️ Detached and townhomes under $1M still see some activity
✔️ Ambitious listings? Still sitting
✔️ Buyers are cautious. Sellers are adjusting.
Sales ratios cut through the noise — and right now, the message is loud and clear:
👉🏻 Buyers hold the cards
📉 Where Does the Market Go From Here?
The Bank of Canada held rates steady again at 2.75% in July — no surprise.
But if you’re holding out for a big cut this year… temper your expectations.
Why?
📌 Core inflation ticked up again — still above 3%
📌 Bond yields are pushing fixed mortgage rates higher again
📌 That “relief rally” everyone hoped for? Not happening
🔎 Can Rate Cuts Still Save the Market?
Maybe we get one or two small cuts later this year — but even if that happens, don’t expect prices to rip higher. At best, it might slow the bleeding.
Meanwhile:– Canada’s GDP per capita is still 2nd worst in the OECD
– Inflation isn’t budging fast enough
– Pre-sales are stalling
– Price cuts are routine
– Buyer confidence is shaky at best
🧠 My Take?
Will rate cuts rescue the market? No.
Could they slow the slide? Possibly.
Will we stabilize later this year? Maybe — but don’t bet your plans on it.
💥 But here’s who is winning right now:
Upsizers. Big time.
Detached homes are down $300K–$500K, while condos are only off $30K–$70K. That spread is still one of the biggest opportunities in this market.
📽️ For more context, check out these two videos:
1. Canada’s Housing Crash Could Last 12 Years
2. Upsizers Are Winning Big Right Now
