October 2025 Market Update: 📉 October Market Update: Prices Back to JULY 2021 Levels 📈 Inventory at a 17-Year High.

Before we dive into the full market update, I’ve got three big stories worth your attention right now:

👉🏻 First, Canada just killed real estate investing.
What’s coming in 2026 could make it nearly impossible for everyday Canadians to buy rental properties again.

👉🏻 Second, Canada’s best minds are fleeing to the U.S.
We’re not just losing workers – we’re losing innovation, capital, and future growth.
👉🏻 And third, $13 billion has been committed to tiny homes.
It sounds interesting on paper, but is this really the housing solution Canada needs?

I recorded three quick videos breaking each of these down, and you can check them out below.

(And stay tuned for part two, on my video on Canada Killing Real Estate Investing. There’s been an update as I’m typing this that I’m still reviewing before I put something new out.)

👇🏻 1. Canada Just Killed Real Estate Investing.

2. Canada’s Best Minds Flee to USA ✈️💸

3. $13 Billion For Tiny Homes

I’m just gonna get right to the numbers.

📊 Fraser Valley Market Update — September 2025

We’re now at Six straight months of HPI price decline since the spring peak.

Prices💸:

Dropped again, from $936,200 in August to $926,300 in September.
That’s a $9,900 drop in one month and roughly $49,500 gone since April.

We’re now sitting below the 2022 post–rate hike lows, and prices have returned to almost the exact same level as July 2021.
That’s four years and two months of appreciation completely erased.

Monthly Price Movements Recap:🔴📉

September 2025: -1.06%🔴
August 2025: -0.91% 🔴
July 2025: -0.75%🔴
June 2025: -1.21%🔴
May 2025: -0.98% 🔴
April 2025: -0.17% 🔴
March 2025: +0.42% 🟢
February 2025: +0.50% 🟢 (updated)
January 2025: 0.00% 🟡

December 2024: -0.46% 🔴
November 2024: -0.23% 🔴
October 2024: -0.7% 🔴
September 2024: -1.4% 🔴
August 2024: -0.7% 🔴
July 2024: -0.3% 🔴
June 2024: -0.5% 🔴
May 2024: -1.0% 🔴
April 2024: -0.2% 🔴 (revised from +0.5%)

March 2024: +1.4% 🟢
February 2024: +0.9% 🟢 (corrected)
January 2024: -0.3% 🔴
December 2023: -1.5% 🔴
November 2023: -1.1% 🔴
October 2023: -1.4% 🔴

That’s 18 red months out of the last 23.

And yet, some headlines are still calling this market “balanced” or “stable.”
The numbers say otherwise. We’ve effectively rolled back to Mid – 2021 pricing while inventory keeps building and sales ratios stay near record lows

🏡 Sales Volume – September 2025 Update

📉 September 2025 clocked in at 774 sales – the third slowest September on record since the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board began tracking.

For comparison:
✅ September 2021 hit 1,677 sales – one of the busiest ever.
❌ September 2025? Less than half that.

August was already weak at 834 sales, and this confirms the slowdown hasn’t let up.

This is supposed to be the tail end of peak selling season. Instead, the market continues to grind lower as sellers finally start accepting the new reality.

📌 To put the slowdown in perspective:

September 2025: 3rd slowest September since 2005
August 2025: 2nd slowest August since 2008
July 2025: 2nd slowest July in 20 years
June 2025: Slowest June on record
May 2025: Slowest May (excluding 2020) in 20 years

📉 This isn’t a blip – it’s a clear trend.

Buyers are patient, sellers are adjusting, and the market is finding its new floor one price cut at a time.

📈 📈 📈 Active Listings – September 2025

Inventory climbed again this month – and we’re now sitting at record-breaking levels.

🔷 Listings jumped from 7,870 in August to 8,147 in September – a 3.5% increase.
🔷 That makes this the 2nd highest September on record, just 64 listings shy of the all-time peak in 2008.
🔷 In fact, it’s now one of the highest inventory months ever recorded in the Fraser Valley, period.

👀 Sellers are still holding out, but the market has clearly shifted. The listings are stacking up, while the number of serious buyers remains thin.

Almost 1 in 5 sellers who listed this summer have now pulled their homes off the market after not getting their price. Most plan to try again in spring – but unless we see a major turnaround, they’ll be facing even more competition then.

The pressure is building, and it’s showing in every segment.

🏢 Condo Market – Flooded and Flat

➡️ Active condo listings climbed to 2,566 in September, up 3.3% from August’s 2,485.
➡️ That’s the highest September ever recorded for condo inventory.
➡️ Only May, June, July, and now September 2025 have hit these levels.

📅 September 2024: 2,195 – record at the time
📅 June 2010: 1,996 – decade-high
📅 September 2025: 2,566 – well past both of those

Why? Same trap, still snapping shut:
🔻 Sales are weak
🔻Condo values are down 15–20% from peak
🔻 Interest rates still brutal
🔻 Negative cash flow eating people alive

Can’t sell without bleeding. Can’t hold without burning.

CONDO INVENTORY ⬇️

Condo inventory continues to SHATTER inventory records and remember that all the brand new pre-construction inventory doesn’t even appear on MLS for the most part and that’s not even included in these numbers.

📊 Sales Ratios – August 2025

Not much has changed from last month.

Sales ratios inched up slightly from 10.2% in August to 10.4% in September, but that’s still deep in buyer’s market territory. Prices continue to slide, and based on the current absorption trend, they’re expected to keep softening through fall.

📉 By Segment:

Overall market: 10.4% (up marginally from 10.2%)
Condos: still hovering around the 10% mark — one of the weakest levels we’ve seen since 2015
Detached & Townhomes: under $1.4M and $900K are seeing the only consistent movement

What This Means:
✔️ Still clearly a buyer’s market
✔️ Investor-owned condos are under the most pressure
✔️ Detached and townhomes under $1M still see some activity
✔️ Ambitious listings? Still sitting
✔️ Buyers are cautious. Sellers are adjusting.

Sales ratios cut through the noise — and right now, the message is loud and clear:

👉🏻 Buyers hold the cards

📉 Where Does the Market Go From Here?

The Bank of Canada finally made its move – cutting rates in September, with another cut looking likely this month or by early spring at the latest.

That’s a welcome shift, but let’s keep it in perspective.

📌 Core inflation ticked up again — still above 3%
📌 Bond yields are pushing fixed mortgage rates higher again
📌 That “relief rally” everyone hoped for? Not happening

🔎 Can Rate Cuts Still Save the Market?

Maybe they’ll help – but not in a big way. Even with another cut or two, the only thing rate relief will likely do is slow the decline, not reverse it.

In my view, we’d need to see rates fall all the way down to around 1.75% before we see any meaningful shift in affordability or momentum.

Meanwhile, the fundamentals haven’t changed much:
– GDP per capita remains near the bottom of the OECD
– Inflation is still stubborn
– Pre-sales are weak
– Price reductions are the norm
– Buyer confidence is soft

🧠 My Take?

Will rate cuts rescue the market? No.
Could they slow the slide? Possibly.
Will we stabilize later this year? Maybe – but only if rates drop much further.

💥 But here’s who is winning right now:
Upsizers. Big time.
Upsizers – by a wide margin. Detached homes are still down $300K–$500K, while condos are off only $30K–$70K. That spread remains one of the biggest opportunities in the market right now..

📽️ For more context, check out these two videos:

1. Canada’s Housing Crash Could Last 12 Years