Hope everyone is doing well and enjoying summer.
Before we get into the numbers, I was recently on The Really Big Show with Jim Csek and Iain Burns talking real about the condo bailout, rent-to-own spin, and what is actually happening in the market.
It was an honour to be on with them. They are one of the few shows willing to have a real conversation without the usual government-approved oatmeal.
The short clips are below, but you can watch The Really Big Show on YouTube here:
Short Clips From The Conversation
A few short clips from my Really Big Show conversation on the condo bailout and market reality.
More Related Clips
July Market Snapshot
The June numbers are in, so this is the July Fraser Valley market update.
Bottom line first: prices are down, inventory is still heavy, and buyers have more leverage than they have had in years. The market is becoming more affordable, but buyers are still cautious. This is not a hot market. It is also not a full-blown crash. It is a slower, buyer-friendly market where sellers need to compete properly and buyers finally have some room to breathe.
Prices First: The Big Story
The composite benchmark price for the Fraser Valley is now $884,800.
That is down 0.9 percent from May and down 7.1 percent from last year.
FVREB also noted that benchmark prices are now 26 percent below the 2022 peak.
That is not a tiny adjustment. That is a real reset.
By property type:
- Detached benchmark: $1,350,200, down 1.2 percent from May and 7.7 percent year-over-year.
- Townhouse benchmark: $764,100, down 0.7 percent from May and 7.3 percent year-over-year.
- Apartment benchmark: $476,400, down 1.5 percent from May and 9.1 percent year-over-year.
Apartments are still taking the hardest hit year-over-year. That matters, especially with all the condo bailout and rent-to-own noise floating around right now.
The simple question is this: if prices are still too high for buyers, is the answer really public money, special programs, and complicated rescue plans? Or is the answer that the market needs to find its real price?
Buyers understand that. Sellers and developers do not always like it.
The official FVREB headline was basically this: the Fraser Valley is becoming more affordable, but buyers are still holding back. That is the market in one sentence.
Prices are lower, but confidence has not come roaring back. Rates, job security, debt, cost of living, government policy, and general economic uncertainty are still weighing on people.
So yes, buyers have more choice. But they are still being careful.
Sales
The Stat Center residential chart shows 1,033 residential sales in June.
The broader FVREB news release reported 1,147 total MLS sales across all property types, which was up 2.0 percent from May but still down 4.0 percent from June last year.
So yes, activity improved a little from May. But for June, this is still not a strong sales number.
This is the part sellers need to understand: more choice plus cautious buyers means buyers do not have to chase. If a home is priced wrong, they just move on.
Active Listings
The Stat Center residential chart shows 7,308 active residential listings.
The broader FVREB release reported 10,377 active listings across all property types, up 2.3 percent from May.
Either way, inventory is still heavy.
This is why the market feels different from the frenzy years. Buyers are not fighting over scraps. They have options, and that changes everything.
Months Of Supply
Months of supply came in around 8.4 months on the residential Stat Center chart.
That is a lot of supply.
This does not mean every property is sitting. Good homes still sell. But it does mean sellers are competing in a real market again. Price, condition, presentation, and timing matter.
If you are listed like it is 2022, buyers are going to treat your home like a museum exhibit: they will look, nod, and keep walking.
Sales-To-Active Ratio
The residential Stat Center chart shows the sales-to-active ratio at 14.1 percent.
The broader FVREB release put the all-property sales-to-active ratio at 11 percent, which is below the usual balanced-market range of 12 to 20 percent.
That is why I would still describe this as buyer-friendly. Even where the residential ratio looks technically closer to balanced, the amount of inventory and the slow buyer psychology still point to a market where buyers have leverage.
The market is not screaming higher. It is grinding, negotiating, and punishing weak pricing.
What This Means For Buyers
Buyers have leverage.
You have more choice, lower prices, and sellers who are more negotiable than they were during the peak. That does not mean every home is a steal, and it does not mean you can write silly offers on every property and expect to win.
But it does mean you can be more patient, more selective, and more disciplined.
The best opportunities right now are usually with sellers who understand the current market and are priced properly. If a property has been sitting, has had price reductions, or was launched with an optimistic number, there may be room to negotiate.
The mistake buyers make is waiting forever for the perfect bottom. Nobody rings a bell at the bottom. If the right home fits your life and the numbers make sense, this is the kind of market where you can negotiate from a stronger position.
What This Means For Upsizers
Upsizers should pay attention to the spread, not just the sale price.
Yes, the home you sell may be worth less than it was at the peak. Nobody loves that part.
But the bigger home you want to buy may also be down, and often by more actual dollars.
That is where the opportunity can show up.
If your current place is down $40,000 but the move-up property is down $120,000, the spread can actually work in your favour. That is the part people miss when they only stare at the value of what they own and forget the buy side.
For condo-to-townhouse or townhouse-to-detached moves, this may be one of the more interesting windows we have seen in a while. The key is running the real numbers on both sides.
What This Means For Sellers
Sellers need to be honest.
This is not the market for fantasy pricing. The homes that sell are the ones that are priced properly, show well, and make sense compared to the competition.
If you overprice, buyers will not fight you. They will ignore you.
That is the biggest shift. In the hot market, sellers could test high and sometimes get bailed out by momentum. In this market, bad pricing gets exposed fast.
You can still sell. But you need a real strategy:
- Price against today’s competition, not 2022 memories.
- Make the home easy to show.
- Fix the obvious objections before buyers use them against you.
- Watch the first two weeks closely.
- Adjust quickly if the market tells you the price is wrong.
Hope is not a pricing strategy. Never has been, but in this market it is extra expensive.
Looking Ahead
The market is giving buyers more room, but it is also showing that confidence is still fragile.
Lower prices help, but they do not magically fix affordability when people are dealing with high debt, expensive living costs, and uncertainty around rates and the economy.
For sellers, the next few months will be about realism.
For buyers, it will be about being ready when the right opportunity shows up.
My take: this is a market where smart buyers and realistic sellers can get deals done. The people who are stuck are the ones pretending the market has not changed.
If you want a straight read on your situation, call or text me anytime. I will tell you what I actually think, not just what sounds nice.
direct/text: 604-825-2853