530 sales. 5,671 listings. That’s the story.
January was the 3rd slowest on record — while inventory hit the 2nd-highest ever.
Hope everyone had a solid start to the year. January always feels like a reset, and February is where reality actually sets in. The holidays are well behind us, routines are back, and the market is showing us exactly what kind of year this is going to be.
No fluff this month. Let’s get straight into it.
January carried over a lot of the same energy we saw at the end of last year. The market did not suddenly rebound because the calendar flipped. Inventory is still heavy, buyers remain cautious, and pricing pressure is very real. Compared to December, activity picked up slightly, but context matters. A small lift from a very low baseline is still a low baseline.
Prices remain under pressure, especially for homes that are not positioned properly. Well priced, well presented properties are moving. Everything else is sitting. Sellers who are anchored to last year’s numbers are finding that out the hard way.
That said, this is not a market with no opportunity. It is just a market that demands precision. Strategy matters more than optimism right now.
Before getting deeper into the numbers and trends, it is worth calling out a few positives. Even with conditions staying tight, the team has been active, focused, and getting deals done. It has not been easy, but the work is showing up where it counts.
More detail below on what we are seeing, what it means if you are buying or selling, and how to approach the next stretch of the year with eyes wide open.
Check out my latest videos below 👇🏻
📊 Fraser Valley Market Update — January 2026
We’ve now recorded ten consecutive months of HPI declines, extending the downtrend that started after the spring peak.
💸 Prices:
The HPI dropped again this month, falling from $905,900 to $897,200.
That’s a $8,700 decline in a single month, or roughly -0.96% for February.
Since the April peak, prices are now down $78,600.
And here’s the part that really matters.
We are now well below the bottom of the 2022 to 2023 correction.
- January 2023 trough: $933,000
- Current HPI: $897,200
That puts today’s prices $35,800 below the worst recent low, even after eight consecutive interest rate hikes during that prior cycle.
We have officially moved below April 2021 price levels. At that time, the HPI sat at $905,900. Today, we are another $8,700 below that, meaning nearly five years of price growth has been erased.
📉 Trend Check
- 21 red months out of the last 26
- Prices are now down approximately 24% from the March 2022 peak
- Inventory remains elevated
- Absorption is weak
- The rate of decline has accelerated over the past year
The chart continues to say the same thing. This is a clear downtrend. With current inventory levels and sales ratios, it will take a meaningful shift in market conditions to reverse course.
This is not a market that turns quietly.
🏡 Sales Volume – January 2026 Context
Focusing strictly on January sales across the full FVREB dataset, here’s how this year stacks up historically.
January 2026 recorded 530 sales, placing it among the slowest Januarys on record.
Out of 22 Januarys in the dataset:
- January 2026 ranks as the 3rd slowest January overall
- Only January 2009 (331 sales) and January 2013 (517 sales) were slower
📉 Where Does December 2025 Rank Historically?
- Slowest January on record:
January 2009 with 331 sales, during the depths of the Global Financial Crisis - Strongest January on record:
January 2021 with 1,491 sales, driven by pandemic-era stimulus and ultra-low interest rates
That puts January 2026 firmly in the bottom tier historically, running at roughly one-third of peak January activity and well below long-term norms.
This reinforces what we are seeing on the ground. Buyer activity remains restrained, inventory is elevated, and demand has not yet returned in a meaningful way. Even by January standards, which are typically slower, this year stands out as notably weak.
📈 Active Listings – January 2026
Active listings (detached and attached combined) rose again in January, increasing from 5,138 at the end of December to 5,671.
That’s an increase of:
- +533 listings month over month
- Roughly +10.4%, which is notable for a month that is typically still slow and seasonal
Rather than inventory tightening after the holidays, supply is already rebuilding early in the year.
📊 January Inventory in Historical Context
When we isolate January inventory levels across the full FVREB dataset, January 2026 stands out clearly.
- January 2026 ranks as the 2nd highest January for active listings on record
- The only higher January was January 2009, during the Global Financial Crisis
In other words, even before spring inventory normally ramps up, we are already sitting near historical extremes for supply.
Best vs Worst Januarys
- Lowest January inventory on record:
January 2021, during the pandemic-driven supply crunch - Highest January inventory on record:
January 2009, at the height of the financial crisis - January 2026:
Second highest January inventory ever recorded
This is not a seasonal blip. This is a structural supply issue.
With inventory already elevated and more listings typically coming online as we move toward spring, the risk is clear. If demand does not improve meaningfully, spring 2026 inventory could push toward all-time highs.
🏢 Condo Market – Still Oversupplied
The condo market remains the most pressured segment.
Even after the usual holiday delistings, condo inventory is still sitting at historically extreme levels. It’s important to remember that a large portion of new and pre-construction condo inventory does not appear on MLS, meaning actual supply is even higher than these numbers suggest.
For condo sellers, this continues to be a market where pricing and positioning are everything. The margin for error is thin, and competition remains intense.en included in these numbers.
CONDO INVENTORY⬇️
Condo inventory continues to SHATTER inventory records and remember that all the brand new pre-construction inventory doesn’t even appear on MLS for the most part and that’s not even included in these numbers.
📊 Sales Ratios – January 2026
Sales ratios pulled back sharply in January, dropping from 14.6% to 9.3%.
That’s not noise. That’s a meaningful slowdown, and it firmly pushes the market back into buyers’ territory after the brief improvement we saw late last year.
By Segment
Condos:
🔻 Sales ratio fell to 10.2%, down from 15.2% in December.
Any momentum we saw toward the end of the year faded quickly. Inventory remains heavy, and buyers are once again in full control.
Townhomes:
🔻Sales ratio dropped to 12.0%, down from 19.9%.
Still the strongest segment relative to others, but this is a big step back. Demand softened meaningfully to start the year.
Detached:
🔻Sales ratio declined to 7.4%, down from 13.3%.
This is now the weakest segment. Buyers are extremely selective, and anything not priced sharply is sitting.
📌 What This Means
✔️ Any move toward balance in December was short lived
✔️ All product types saw absorption fall, not just one segment
✔️ Condos remain vulnerable due to oversupply
✔️ Townhomes are still the healthiest, but no longer insulated
✔️ Detached homes are clearly under pressure
Absorption bounced back in December, rising from 11.9% → 15.5%. A welcome uptick – signaling a touch more buyer activity, though still firmly in buyers’ territory.
📉 Where Does the Market Go From Here? (February 2026 Outlook)
Let’s talk about what’s next.
On the rate front, not much has changed. Variable mortgage rates are largely holding steady, and the Bank of Canada appears firmly on pause after the two cuts last fall. There is no clear signal that meaningful relief is coming in the near term.
So what is actually driving the market right now?
Inflation remains stubborn, with core measures still above target. Bond yields are not falling enough to materially ease fixed rates. Affordability has barely improved. Investors continue to step back as cash flows stay negative. At the same time, the broader economy is under strain with weak productivity, low investment, and capital leaving the country. All of that keeps pressure on housing.
Layer on top what is coming next. In 2026, roughly 30% of Big Five bank mortgages will renew, many jumping from rates near 2% to the 4 to 5% range. That renewal shock will squeeze household budgets, reduce discretionary spending, and add further drag to housing demand. Government policy has not meaningfully offset any of this.
❓ Will rate cuts turn housing around?
Unlikely.
Even if we see modest cuts, they may slow the decline but are unlikely to reverse it without a sustained and aggressive easing cycle. With the Bank of Canada on hold and economic headwinds building, the base case remains a slow grind lower rather than a sharp rebound.
Adding to the uncertainty, the Big Five banks are all over the map in their 2026 forecasts. Some are calling for rate hikes later in the year, others for one or two cuts, and some for no change at all. There is no clear consensus, which tells you everything you need to know about confidence levels right now.
🏡 Who is actually winning in this market?
Upsizers are in the strongest position by far. Selling condos or townhomes roughly $40,000 to $50,000 off their peaks while buying detached homes $300,000 to $350,000 below highs creates a meaningful affordability gap. That spread represents a $250,000 to $300,000 advantage compared to 2022 and 2023. For upsizers, this is one of the best windows we have seen in years.
First time buyers are also benefiting. No bidding wars, no twenty offer chaos, and no pressure to remove subjects just to compete. Inventory is available, negotiations are real, and buyers have time to make good decisions before any seasonal shift.
Lateral movers are enjoying a calmer pace. You can sell without panic, buy thoughtfully, and avoid the pressure cooker conditions of past cycles.
Downsizers require more care. Timing, pricing, and product selection matter more than ever to avoid the steepest parts of the decline. With the right strategy, this can still work, but it is not a set it and forget it market.
🌿 Looking ahead
Sentiment is worse than it was last month, and the data supports that. That said, we are approaching the part of the year where the seasonal peak normally comes into view. Spring will likely bring more activity, but matching last year’s peak looks unlikely given current inventory level