Hey friends,
Before we dive into the full market update, I want to highlight one of the most interesting buyer profiles that’s winning big right now: the upsizer.
We’re seeing detached home prices in places like South Surrey down over $430,000 from the peak. Meanwhile, condos in the same area? They’ve only dropped about $60,000. That same trend holds true in Mission, where detached homes are down $330,000, and townhomes are only down around $40,000.
Bottom line? If you’re selling a condo or townhouse and moving into a detached home, you’re coming out aheadโway ahead.
I recorded a quick video walking through how this works, with real examples and slides to back it up. You can watch the full video here:
[Click to watch] “Upsizers Are Winning BIG Right Now”
Or just check out the 4 slides below, which break it down visually.
If you’re in South Surrey, Mission, Langley, or similar markets, this is absolutely worth looking into.
Thinking about making a move?
Just reply to this email with the word โUPSIZEโ in the subject and let me know your situation.
I’ll send you a no-pressure, complimentary home evaluation and buying power analysis to show exactly how much money you could be saving.
No fluff. Just real market math.
Now I could go on about the tariffsโฆ
But there are already enough people covering that.
Iโm just gonna get right to the numbers.
(For the record, this country was cooked way before those tariffs were announcedโฆ but thatโs for another day haha ๐
)
๐ Fraser Valley Market Update โJuly 2025
Weโre now at four straight months of HPI price decline.
June was the third. July confirms the trendโs still alive.
๐ธ Prices:
Dropped again, from $935,000 in June to $928,000 in July
Thatโs $7,000 in one month and $23,000 in two months
Weโre back to August 2021 pricesโฆ four years of appreciation wiped out.
Monthly Price Movements Recap:๐ด๐
July 2025: -0.75%๐ด
June 2025: -1.21%๐ด
May 2025: -0.98% ๐ด
April 2025: -0.17% ๐ด
March 2025: +0.42% ๐ข
February 2025: +0.50% ๐ข (updated)
January 2025: 0.00% ๐ก
December 2024: -0.46% ๐ด
November 2024: -0.23% ๐ด
October 2024: -0.7% ๐ด
September 2024: -1.4% ๐ด
August 2024: -0.7% ๐ด
July 2024: -0.3% ๐ด
June 2024: -0.5% ๐ด
May 2024: -1.0% ๐ด
April 2024: -0.2% ๐ด (revised from +0.5%)
March 2024: +1.4% ๐ข
February 2024: +0.9% ๐ข (corrected)
January 2024: -0.3% ๐ด
December 2023: -1.5% ๐ด
November 2023: -1.1% ๐ด
October 2023: -1.4% ๐ด
Thatโs 16 red months out of the last 22.
And yetโฆ still barely anyone in mainstream media is talking about it.
Now letโs look at the actual numbersโฆ
๐ August Market Highlights (Fraser Valley)
July marked the fourth straight month of HPI decline, following two brief months of recovery โ and 11 months of losses before that. Translation: the marketโs still sliding.
๐ Sales: down slightly from 1,082 to 1,055 โ a 2.5% decrease
The second Lowest July on record
๐ธ Prices: down from $963,200 to $951,500 โ a 1.21% drop
๐ก Prices are now just above September 2021 levels โ and the trend still isnโt reversing
๐ก Sales Volume โ August 2025 Update
๐ July 2025 just clocked in at 1,055 sales โ a drop from Juneโs 1,082
That makes this the 2nd slowest July in at least 20 years
Only July 2022 was worse โ and that was right after the 8th straight rate hike
(Remember how that one felt? Yeahโฆ this oneโs close)
And June?
๐ June 2025 was the slowest June on record in at least two decades โ even slower than June 2020 when we were literally in lockdown.
This is normally peak season. Instead of momentum, we got a stall:
๐ Just 1,082 sales across detached and attached homes in the Fraser Valley โ barely up from Mayโs 1,057.
๐ For context:
โ
June 2016: 2,466 sales โ one of the busiest on record
โ June 2025: 1,082 sales โ less than half
Thatโs not a dip. Thatโs a grind.
๐ To put the slowdown in perspective:
- July 2025: 2nd slowest July in 20 years
- June 2025: Slowest June on record
- May 2025: Slowest May (excluding 2020) in 20 years
- February 2025: 3rd slowest February in 20 years
- January 2025: 10th slowest January in 20 years
- December 2024: 9th fastest December in 20 years
- November 2024: 9th slowest November in 20 years
- October 2024: 10th slowest October in 20 years
- September 2024: 5th slowest September in 19 years
- August 2024: 4th slowest August in 20 years
- July 2024: 3rd slowest July in 20 years
๐ This isnโt an outlier.
Itโs a pattern.
Buyers are waiting. And now, sellers are finally adjusting their pricesโฆ
๐ Active Listings โ July 2025
Inventory dipped againโฆ but donโt celebrate just yet.
๐ท Listings dropped slightly from 8,112 in June to 8,057 in July โ just a 0.68% decline
๐ท But this still marks the 2nd highest July on record, just behind 2008
๐ท In fact, itโs now the 6th highest inventory month ever in the Fraser Valley
๐ The pressure is building โ and itโs showing.
๐ข Condo Market โ Still Choking on Listings
Another slight dipโฆ but the numbers are still brutal.
โก๏ธ 2,533 active condo listings in July โ down just 1.8% from Juneโs all-time high of 2,580
โก๏ธ That makes July the 3rd highest month ever recorded for condo inventory
โก๏ธ Only May and June 2025 were higher
๐
Sept 2024: 2,195 โ record at the time
๐
June 2010: 1,996 โ decade-high
๐
July 2025: 2,533 โ still way past any of those
Why? Same trap, still snapping shut:
๐ป Sales are weak
๐ป Condo values down 15โ20% from peak
๐ป Interest rates still brutal
๐ป Negative cash flow eating people alive
Can’t sell without bleeding. Can’t hold without burning.
Unless rates crash or something wild happens, this inventory isnโt going anywhere.
CONDO INVENTORY โฌ๏ธ
๐ Sales Ratios โ July 2025
Sales ratios are still weakโฆ and July didnโt help the story.
๐ป Overall market: slipped from 13.3% in June to 13.1% in July
๐บ Condos: rose slightly from 13.2% to 14.1% โ but still weak historically
This is one of the softest environments for condos since 2015.
What This Means:
โ๏ธ Still clearly a buyerโs market
โ๏ธ Overpriced investor specials are dragging the condo market
โ๏ธ Detached and townhomes under $1M are still getting action
โ๏ธ Anything ambitious? Still sitting.
โ๏ธ Buyers are cautious. Sellers are adjusting.
Sales ratios cut through the noise โ and right now, the message is loud and clear:
๐๐ป Buyers hold the cards
๐ Where Does the Market Go From Here?
The Bank of Canada held rates steady again at 2.75% in July โ no surprise.
But if youโre holding out for a big cut this year… donโt.
Why?
๐ Core inflation ticked up again โ still above 3%
๐ Fixed mortgage rates are rising as bond yields bounce back
๐ That โrelief rallyโ everyone hoped for? Not happening
๐ Can Rate Cuts Still Save the Market?
The optimists are still dreaming of a 0.50โ1% drop before year-endโฆ
But thatโs based on perfect inflation data, and weโre not seeing it.
Meanwhile:
โ Canadaโs GDP per capita is still 2nd worst in the OECD
โ Inflation is sticky
โ Trump-era tariffs just doubled again (yes, again ๐)
โ Pre-sales are stalling
โ Price cuts are routine
โ Buyer confidence is shaky at best
๐ง My Take?
Will rate cuts rescue the market? Nope.
Could they stop the bleeding? Maybe.
Will we stabilize later this year? Possibly โ but donโt bet your plans on it.
๐ฅ But hereโs who is winning right now:
Upsizers. Big time.
Selling a condo or townhome and buying detached is a massive net gain in this market.
Iโve said it all month: prices are down $300Kโ$500K on detached homesโฆ while condos are only down $30Kโ$70K.
That kind of math is hard to ignore.
๐ฉ Thinking about upsizing?
Reply with “Upsize” in the title of your email and let me know your situation.
I’ll run a no-obligation evaluation and buyer analysis to show you how much you could save.
๐ฝ๏ธWatch These 4 Quick Reels:
โฌ๏ธ “Upsizes Are Winning Big Right Now”
โฌ๏ธStock’s Outperformed Real Estate By 64%
โฌ๏ธCanada Ranks #1 In Household Debtย ๐ตโ๐ซ
โฌ๏ธ27,000 Canadian’s Left In the First Quarterย ๐ฎ
I hope you found this forecast helpful! 
As always, feel free to reach out if youโd like to discuss your personal real estate situation 
. Iโm here to help! And if youโre curious about how much YOUR home is worth, contact me today for a no-obligation home evaluation! 
