We’re now far enough into the year that the trend isn’t forming anymore – it’s showing.
March didn’t just come in soft… it confirmed what February was hinting at.
Sales actually dropped back again, landing at just 893 transactions. That makes this the second slowest March we’ve seen in over two decades. Not exactly what you expect heading into spring.
At the same time, inventory is doing the opposite.
Active listings climbed to over 6,500, which puts us at the third highest level we’ve seen, and more importantly, territory we haven’t really been in since around 2014.
That gap between supply and demand is widening – and it’s showing up clearly in the months of inventory.
We’re now sitting at 7.4 months. That’s the highest level for March since 2013.
The sales-to-active ratio did tick up slightly, moving from 12.1% to 13.7%. So yes, technically an improvement – but let’s be real, that still keeps us firmly in buyer’s market conditions.
The interesting shift is pricing.
For the first time in about a year, we actually saw a small increase – from $895,100 to $898,300.
Not a big move, but in this kind of market, even a slight uptick stands out.
The bigger picture though hasn’t changed – buyers have options, sellers have competition, and anything that isn’t priced right is getting exposed pretty quickly.
More below on what this means and how to navigate it.
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📊 Fraser Valley Market Update — April 2026
Let’s get into the numbers. We had eleven consecutive months of price declines, and for the first time since that slide started, we’ve finally seen a break in that trend.
💸 Prices:
The HPI moved from $895,100 up to $898,300 this month.
That’s a $3,200 increase, or about +0.36% for March.
Not a big move – but it does officially end the downward streak we’ve been in for nearly a year.
Now zoom out, because this is where it matters.
Even with that increase, prices are still well below the peak.
And more importantly…
We’re still sitting right around spring 2021 price levels.
April 2021 HPI: $905,900
Current HPI: $898,300
That puts today’s prices roughly $7,600 below where we were almost four years ago.
So yes, we got a bump this month.
But in the bigger picture, we’re still looking at a market that has given back most of its gains from the last few years.
And with inventory continuing to build, one month of price growth doesn’t change the pressure that’s still sitting on this market.
📉 Trend Check
Looking at the broader trend, not much has actually changed.
We’re now at 22 red months out of the last 28, with this past month being the first real interruption to that pattern.
Prices are still sitting roughly 24% below the March 2022 peak, so zooming out, the direction has been pretty consistent.
Supply continues to hang around elevated levels, and that’s the bigger story right now.
Even though the sales ratio ticked up to 13.7%, it’s still nowhere near balanced conditions – this is still very much a buyer-controlled market.
And yes, prices nudged up this month.
But one data point doesn’t undo a multi-year trend.
At best, what we’re seeing here is a slowdown in the decline, not a confirmed shift upward.
The overall pressure in the market hasn’t gone anywhere.
Until demand meaningfully picks up or inventory starts tightening, this environment stays the same.
And historically, markets in this position don’t just flip overnight.
📈 Active Listings – February 2026
Supply kept building through March – and it’s not subtle.
We’re now sitting at 6,516 active listings, which puts us among the highest levels we’ve seen in well over a decade.
And this is where context matters.
When you stack March up historically, 2026 ranks as the 3rd highest March for inventory on record.
Only:
- 2025 (6,942 listings)
- 2009 (6,902 listings)
…have been higher.
That’s it.
Everything else falls below where we are right now.
Now flip that for perspective.
Some of the lowest March inventory levels:
- 2017 – 3,011
- 2018 – 3,184
- 2023 – 3,195
So compared to more normal markets, we’re effectively sitting at double the supply.
And we’re not even fully into the spring surge yet.
That’s the key point.
This isn’t inventory catching up – this is inventory already sitting at extreme levels before peak season even hits.
If listings continue to build from here, and demand doesn’t step up in a meaningful way, we’re looking at a market that stays heavily tilted toward buyers.
🏢 Condo Market – Still Oversupplied
Condos continue to be the most pressured segment – and that hasn’t changed.
Inventory climbed to 2,080 units in March, making this the 2nd highest March on record.
The only time we’ve seen more was 2025 at 2,236 units.
So again, we’re not talking about normal seasonal supply here.
We’re sitting near historic highs.
And keep in mind – this only reflects what’s on MLS.
It doesn’t include pre-construction or assignment inventory, which means the true supply picture is likely even heavier than what these numbers show.
For sellers, this creates a very unforgiving environment.
Buyers have options. A lot of them.
Which means:
- Pricing has to be dialed in
- Presentation has to stand out
- Positioning has to be intentional
Because right now, there’s very little room for error.
CONDO INVENTORY⬇️
Condo inventory continues to shatter historical records.
And it’s important to remember that a huge portion of brand-new pre-construction inventory never appears on MLS.
That means the numbers we’re seeing here likely understate the true level of supply in the condo market.
In other words, actual condo inventory is almost certainly higher than what the data shows.
This remains the most oversupplied segment of the market, and it continues to face the greatest pricing pressure moving forward.
📊 Sales Ratios
We did see a bit of movement here.
The overall sales ratio climbed from 12.1% to 13.7%.
So yes – activity improved.
But zoom out… this is still firmly a buyer’s market.
This looks a lot more like
By Segment
Condos:
🔻Sales ratio moved slightly from 13.3% to 13.4%.
That’s basically flat.
There’s some activity, but with inventory sitting where it is, competition is still heavy and buyers still have leverage.
Townhomes:
🔻Sales ratio increased from 15.8% to 17.5%.
This continues to be the strongest segment, but even here, we’re not in seller territory – just less weak than everything else.
Detached:
🔻Sales ratio jumped from 9.3% to 11.9%.
That’s a noticeable move, but let’s be clear – this segment is still under the most pressure. Buyers are selective, price-sensitive, and in no rush.
📌 What This Means
✔️Sales activity picked up across all segments
✔️Detached saw the biggest relative jump (from very low levels)
✔️ Condos remain stuck due to oversupply
✔️Townhomes are holding up best, but still not strong
✔️Overall conditions remain in buyer’s market territory
The bigger picture hasn’t changed.
Even with this uptick in activity, it’s not enough to absorb the amount of inventory we’re seeing.
Until that gap closes, buyers stay in control.
📊 Looking Ahead – Spring Test
Coming into the year, there was some cautious optimism that things might start to settle in 2026.
So far… that hasn’t really shown up.
Yes, we did get a small price increase this month, which is a change.
And I’m hopeful that’s the start of something.
But if we’re being realistic, the fundamentals haven’t shifted.
Inventory is still high.
Supply is still building.
And buyers are still moving cautiously.
Now we’re heading into the stretch that actually matters.
Historically, about 80% of price peaks happen between March and May.
This is when the market is supposed to show strength.
So the next couple of months will give us a clear read.
Could we see a spring bounce?
Yeah – that’s normal.
But based on what we’re seeing right now… if that bounce does happen, it’s likely to be temporary, not a full reversal.
When you look at the underlying conditions – and even compare this to previous cycles – the setup still points to continued pressure after that seasonal lift.
There’s also a growing number of owners, especially on the investor side, who are starting to feel the strain.
If more of that inventory hits the market, it just adds to supply in a market that already has plenty.
So while this month is a step in the right direction…