Hey friends — buckle up.
We’re halfway through 2025 and if you were holding out hope for a soft landing… that ship has sailed. We’re now staring down the barrel of record-high inventory, record-low sales, a weak economy, and a trade war that escalated even further (think David vs. Goliath — lol).
Let’s start with the trade mess:
🇺🇸 U.S. Tariffs Just Doubled — And We’re Getting Smoked
The U.S. just ramped up tariffs again, doubling down on Canadian steel, aluminum, and EVs. Canada responded with a fresh round of counter-tariffs. Now we’ve got a full-blown tariff ping-pong match going on.
- 50% tariffs on EVs – confirmed
- Steel and aluminum tariffs back in action
- Canada’s retaliation: $30B+ in new counter-tariffs
The bottom line? Canada was never equipped to play this game — and the markets are feeling it.
📉 What This Means for Real Estate
It’s not just tariffs — it’s everything.
Canada has the second-worst GDP per capita growth in the OECD.
Inflation? Still hot. With Core Inflation up to 3.2% (Highest in 15 months)
Interest rates? Held at 2.75% in June — the Bank of Canada’s hands are tied.
Unemployment? 7% overall, and a brutal 20% for youth.
This economy’s on ice. And the real estate market knows it.
➡️ Buyers are cautious, lowballing or waiting it out
➡️ Sellers are adjusting, after getting hit with multiple offers that keep coming in lower after getting hit with offers that keep coming in, lower than the last one
➡️ Developers are stuck, unable to hit pre-sale minimums to secure financing
➡️ Inventory is stacking, absorption is falling, and price drops are becoming the norm
If you were waiting for a turnaround — it’s not here.
📽️ Watch These Next:
⬇️How to Actually Sell Your Home in 2025
⬇️The Millennials Are Miserable (Hint: 56% drop in satisfaction)
📊 May Market Highlights (Fraser Valley)
May marked the second straight month of HPI decline, following two months of slight recovery — which itself came after 11 months of straight losses. So yeah, it’s been a ride.
- 📉 Sales: up from 933 to 1,057 — a 13.3% increase, but still the lowest May on record
- 💸 Prices: down from $972,700 to $963,200 — a 0.98% drop
- 🏡 Prices are now back to September 2021 levels — and momentum suggests we’re not done dropping
Price Change Recap: 🔴📉 - May 2025: -0.98% 🔴
- April 2025: -0.17% 🔴
- March 2025: +0.42% 🟢
- February 2025: +0.50% 🟢 (updated)
- January 2025: 0.00% 🟡
- December 2024: -0.46% 🔴
- November 2024: -0.23% 🔴
- October 2024: -0.7% 🔴
- September 2024: -1.4% 🔴
- August 2024: -0.7% 🔴
- July 2024: -0.3% 🔴
- June 2024: -0.5% 🔴
- May 2024: -1.0% 🔴
- April 2024: -0.2% 🔴 (revised from +0.5%)
- March 2024: +1.4% 🟢
- February 2024: +0.9% 🟢 (corrected)
- January 2024: -0.3% 🔴
- December 2023: -1.5% 🔴
- November 2023: -1.1% 🔴
- October 2023: -1.4% 🔴
Sales Volume –
📉 May 2025 marked the slowest May on record in the past 20 years—excluding May 2020, when most of the country was still locked inside and real estate basically hit pause.
Normally, this time of year is when the market comes alive. But instead of surging, we saw just a 14.03% increase in sales from 927 in April to 1,057 in May across detached and attached homes in the Fraser Valley.
For comparison:
✅ May 2021: 2,654 sales – busiest May ever
❌ May 2025: 1,057 sales – less than half of that
That’s not a typical spring bounce—it’s a red flag.
To give it more context, here’s how recent months stack up historically:
- 📉 May 2025: Slowest May (excl. 2020) in 20 years
- 📉 February 2025: 3rd slowest February in 20 years
- 📉 January 2025: 10th slowest January in 20 years
- 📉 December 2024: 9th fastest December in 20 years
- 📉 November 2024: 9th slowest November in 20 years
- 📉 October 2024: 10th slowest October in 20 years
- 📉 September 2024: 5th slowest September in 19 years
- 📉 August 2024: 4th slowest August in 20 years
- 📉 July 2024: 3rd slowest July in 20 years
This isn’t just a slow month—it’s a full-on pattern. Buyers are waiting. Sellers are adjusting.
And the market is caught in the middle.
Active Listings –
📈 Inventory just hit the highest level for May in Fraser Valley history — and not by a little.
- Listings jumped from 7,663 in April to 8,160 in May
- That’s a 6.5% increase month-over-month
- It’s also the highest inventory for May ever recorded
- Only July–October 2008 saw higher inventory totals — and we all know how that turned out
We’re talking peak-2008 vibes here — without the financial crisis excuse.
Condo Market – 🚨 Historic Inventory Surge
🏢 2,573 active condo listings in May
🏢 New all-time high — not just for May, but for any month ever
🏢 For context:
- Last September (2024): 2,195 — record at the time
- June 2010: 1,996 — prior decade-high
So yeah, we’re not just edging higher — we’ve blown past every condo inventory record in the book.
Why’s This Happening?
A ton of these units were picked up by investors banking on rising values or rental income — but now:
➡️ Sales are weak
➡️ Valuations are down 15–20%
➡️ Negative cash flow is crushing returns
➡️ Interest rates are still punishing, especially for pre-con builds
It’s the classic trap: can’t sell without a loss, can’t hold without bleeding cash.
Unless we see a serious rate drop or a market turnaround, this mountain of condo inventory isn’t going
CONDO INVENTORY ⬇️
Sales Ratios 📊
Sales ratios ticked up slightly in May… but don’t get too excited.
📈 Overall sales ratio rose from 12.1% in April to 13.0% in May
📉 But condos? They went the other way — falling from 13.8% to 13.3%, marking one of the lowest condo sales ratios since 2015
What This Means for the Market
✔️We’re still sitting in buyer’s market territory
✔️ Condos continue to underperform — especially newer ones with inflated valuations
✔️ Detached and townhomes in entry-level price points are getting action, but anything priced high is sitting
✔️ Buyers are staying cautious — and sellers are adjusting expectations, fast
Sales ratios cut through the noise — and right now, they’re telling us loud and clear: buyers hold the power
Where Does the Market Go from Here?
The Bank of Canada’s June rate announcement is in—and they held firm at 2.75%.
Why? Core inflation is still too high—sitting above 3%, which is outside the Bank’s comfort zone.
Their target is 2%—and they’re not budging until it gets closer to that.
And while people were hoping for relief? That got crushed the moment inflation ticked up again.
📈 On top of that, bond yields have climbed back to where they were in January, which means fixed mortgage rates are rising again too. So if you were waiting for cheaper borrowing… keep waiting.
Can Rate Cuts Still Save the Market?
🔷 The Optimistic Spin: Some folks still think we’ll see a few cuts this summer—maybe 0.50% or even 1% by year-end. But that’s based on the assumption that inflation magically behaves.
🔻 Reality Check: Canada’s GDP per capita growth is 2nd lowest in the OECD, core inflation is still rising, and now we’re dealing with new Trump-era tariffs.
(Yeah, those just doubled. Convenient timing.)
And we’re still seeing:
– Slowing pre-sales
– Price drops across the board
– Investors bailing
– And a market that’s been beaten up for over a year.
My Outlook?
Do I think rate cuts will magically reverse the market?
Nope.
Do I think they’ll maybe stop prices from totally tanking?
Maybe.
Could we see stability by the end of the year?
Sure—but don’t bank on it.
💬 If you bought or sold between Sept 2021 and the peak, and you’re stuck or unsure about your next move—let’s talk. There might be a better strategy.
Final Word: Things Might Feel Rough—But There’s Still a Path Forward
Whether you’re feeling stuck, looking to invest smarter, or just want to make sense of what’s happening—I’m here to help.
Shoot me a message.
And if you made it to the bottom of this update… congrats—you’re now a card-carrying real estate nerd. 😂🏡📉
I hope you found this forecast helpful! 
As always, feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss your personal real estate situation 
. I’m here to help! And if you’re curious about how much YOUR home is worth, contact me today for a no-obligation home evaluation! 
