Hey friends,
Before we dive into this month’s real estate stats, let’s take a quick reality check.
Title: “A Brief History of Housing Corrections” – from BMO Economics
(Shows how long past Canadian housing downturns have lasted — some over a decade.)
People love to say, “real estate always goes up.”
But history tells a different story.
• Ontario in the 1990s? Took nearly 12 years to recover
• Vancouver’s correction in 1995? 9 years
• Calgary in 2015? Took 7 years to bounce back
So no — a recovery doesn’t always show up next quarter. And this year’s market? It’s definitely not charging back up the hill.
📉 July 2025 Market Reality Check:
Some people were hoping July would be the turnaround month. Here’s what actually happened:
• Inventory is slightly down — but still high
• Sales ticked up — but just barely
• Prices? Mostly flat, with some softening across the board
• Buyers are still hesitant and shopping around
• Sellers are coming down — or sitting unsold
This isn’t a crash. It’s a long, drawn-out correction.
And it’s being driven by more than just interest rates…
🇨🇦 The Broader Economic Mess
Let’s not sugarcoat it:
• Canada ranks 37th out of 38 OECD countries for GDP per capita growth
• Youth unemployment is over 20%
• Overall jobless rate: 7%
• Interest rates held at 2.75% in July — and the Bank of Canada has no room to cut
Inflation’s still sticky, and consumer confidence is weak. The only thing propping this up has been immigration — and even that’s slowing.
🇺🇸 Meanwhile… The Trade War Escalates
The U.S. just dropped another economic bomb — and this round hits even harder:
• 50% tariffs on EVs
• Steel and aluminum restrictions back
• 50% tariff on copper — brutal for construction and manufacturing
• 200% tariffs on select pharmaceuticals — major supply chain risk
• New tariffs coming on microchips — which power everything from cars to smart homes
• Canada’s counter-punch? $30 billion in retaliatory tariffs (and counting)
This isn’t just headline noise. These moves jack up construction costs, squeeze developers, rattle investors, and clog the pipeline for just about everything.
Welcome to the new normal — a politicized trade war where real estate gets caught in the crossfire.
🧭 What does it all mean for real estate?
• Buyers: You’ve got leverage — use it
• Sellers: Don’t overreach… the market doesn’t care what you “want”
• Investors: Don’t chase appreciation right now. Look for cash flow or discounts
This is a local market — but it’s also tied to a national slowdown that isn’t getting better anytime soon.
📽️ Watch These Next:
⬇️Canada Is Slipping Into Recession
📊 June Market Highlights (Fraser Valley)
Now let’s look at the actual numbers…
June marked the third straight month of HPI decline, following two brief months of recovery — and 11 months of losses before that. Translation: the market’s still sliding.
📉 Sales: up slightly from 1,057 to 1,082 — a 2.4% increase
Still the lowest June on record
💸 Prices: down from $963,200 to $951,500 — a 1.21% drop
🏡 Prices are now just above September 2021 levels — and the trend still isn’t reversing
Price Change Recap: 🔴📉
June 2025: -1.21%🔴
May 2025: -0.98% 🔴
April 2025: -0.17% 🔴
March 2025: +0.42% 🟢
February 2025: +0.50% 🟢 (updated)
January 2025: 0.00% 🟡
December 2024: -0.46% 🔴
November 2024: -0.23% 🔴
October 2024: -0.7% 🔴
September 2024: -1.4% 🔴
August 2024: -0.7% 🔴
July 2024: -0.3% 🔴
June 2024: -0.5% 🔴
May 2024: -1.0% 🔴
April 2024: -0.2% 🔴 (revised from +0.5%)
March 2024: +1.4% 🟢
February 2024: +0.9% 🟢 (corrected)
January 2024: -0.3% 🔴
December 2023: -1.5% 🔴
November 2023: -1.1% 🔴
October 2023: -1.4% 🔴
🏡 Sales Volume – June 2025
📉 June 2025 was the slowest June on record in at least the past 20 years — even slower than June 2020, when we were in lockdown and the market froze.
This is normally peak season. But instead of momentum, we got a dud:
📊 Just 1,082 sales across detached and attached homes in the Fraser Valley — barely up from May’s 1,057.
For comparison:
✅ June 2016: 2,466 sales — one of the busiest Junes ever
❌ June 2025: 1,082 sales — less than half of that
That’s not a slowdown. That’s a grind.
To give it more context, here’s how recent months stack up:
- 📉 June 2025: Slowest June on record
- 📉 May 2025: Slowest May (excl. 2020) in 20 years
- 📉 February 2025: 3rd slowest February in 20 years
- 📉 January 2025: 10th slowest January in 20 years
- 📉 December 2024: 9th fastest December in 20 years
- 📉 November 2024: 9th slowest November in 20 years
- 📉 October 2024: 10th slowest October in 20 years
- 📉 September 2024: 5th slowest September in 19 years
- 📉 August 2024: 4th slowest August in 20 years
- 📉 July 2024: 3rd slowest July in 20 years
📌 This isn’t an outlier. It’s a pattern.
Buyers are waiting and now Sellers are adjusting…
📈 Active Listings – June 2025
Inventory technically dipped… but don’t get too excited.
🔷 Listings dropped slightly from 8,169 in May to 8,098 in June — a 0.87% decline.
🔷 But even with that dip, this is the highest June inventory on record for the Fraser Valley.
The only months that ever saw more listings than this?
July to October 2008.
And we all remember what came next.
📌 It’s peak-2008 vibes again — minus the financial crisis excuse.
🏢 Condo Market – 🚨 Inventory Hits Another Record
This part’s wild.
➡️ 2,576 active condo listings in June — up from 2,572 in May
➡️ New all-time high — not just for June, but for any month, ever
➡️ The graph says it all. It’s vertical.
For context:
- 📅 Sept 2024: 2,195 — then a record
- 📅 June 2010: 1,996 — prior decade-high
- 📅 Now: 2,576 — 🚀 blown past every historical mark
Why is this happening?
Because investors are stuck — plain and simple.
🔻 Sales are weak
🔻 Condo values down 15–20% from peak
🔻 Interest rates still punishing
🔻 Negative cash flow eating people alive
It’s the classic trap:
Can’t sell without a loss… can’t hold without bleeding cash.
Unless rates drop hard or something crazy happens, this inventory isn’t going anywhere fast.
CONDO INVENTORY ⬇️
📊 Sales Ratios
Sales ratios nudged up again in June… but don’t confuse that with strength.
🔷 Overall sales ratio: rose from 12.9% in May to 13.4% in June
🔻 Condos: slipped again — from 13.3% to 13.2%
That makes this one of the weakest condo sales ratios since 2015.
What This Means for the Market
✔️ Still firmly in buyer’s market territory
✔️ Condos continue to drag — especially the overpriced investor specials
✔️ Detached and townhomes under $1M are seeing some movement
✔️ Anything ambitious? Sitting.
✔️ Buyers are cautious. Sellers are getting real — fast.
Sales ratios cut through the noise — and right now, they’re screaming the same message:
Buyers hold the cards.
📉 Where Does the Market Go From Here?
The Bank of Canada held rates steady at 2.75% in June…
But let’s be honest — the window for cuts is closing fast.
Why?
📌 Core inflation ticked up again — still above 3%, which means we’re nowhere near the Bank’s 2% target.
📌 Fixed mortgage rates are climbing as bond yields rebound to January levels.
📌 The hoped-for “relief rally”? Yeah, not happening.
🔎 Can Rate Cuts Still Save the Market?
The hopeful crowd thinks we’ll still see 0.50–1% in cuts before year-end…
But that’s based on best-case-scenario inflation.
Reality?
– Canada’s GDP per capita is still 2nd worst in the OECD
– Core inflation is stubborn
– Trump-era tariffs just doubled again (no joke)
At the same time:
– Pre-sales are stalling
– Price cuts are routine
– Investors are pulling out
– Buyer confidence is fragile at best
🧠 My Take?
Will rate cuts rescue the market?
Nope.
Will they maybe stop prices from sliding further?
Maybe.
Could we see stabilization later this year?
Sure — but don’t plan your life around it.
If you bought or sold between Sept 2021 and the peak, and now feel stuck…
DM me. We’ll figure it out together. And if you made it to the bottom of this update… congrats—you’re now a card-carrying real estate nerd. 😂🏡📉
I hope you found this forecast helpful! 
As always, feel free to reach out if you’d like to discuss your personal real estate situation 
. I’m here to help! And if you’re curious about how much YOUR home is worth, contact me today for a no-obligation home evaluation! 
