Before we dive into the full stats, I’ve got four fast hits worth your attention right now:
👉🏻 Liberals just revealed a $78.3B deficit
- 10 cents of every dollar is now going to interest. That’s your tax money paying for yesterday’s mistakes instead of building tomorrow.
👉🏻 Video 2 – BC throttles big AI and bans crypto mines
- Investment isn’t waiting around – it’s packing its bags for Alberta and the U.S. Jobs follow capital. Who knew.?
👉🏻 And Third, Buyer sentiment is ice-cold
- Worst I’ve seen in 11 years. Prices are now further below the Spring 2022 peak than we were this far out after 2008 – and after Ontario’s 90s slump. Translation: buyers are spooked, sellers need strategy.
👉🏻 And Lastly, Can you keep up with boomer buying power?
- Reframed: What hourly wage does a 30-something need today to match what boomers had when they bought? Spoiler — the math hurts.
👇🏻 1. Liberals just revealed a $78.3B deficit
2. BC throttles big AI and bans crypto mines
3. Buyer sentiment is ice-cold
4. Can you keep up with Boomer Buying Power?
📊 Fraser Valley Market Update — October 2025
I’m skipping the fluff straight to the stats.
We’ve now logged six straight months of HPI slippage since the spring high.
💸 Prices:
- Down again, from $926,300 in September to $919,900 in October
- That’s a $6,400 drop in one month and $55,900 off since April
We’re now under the 2022 post–rate hike lows and basically back to mid-2021 pricing roughly four years of gains wiped out.
Monthly Price Movements Recap:🔴📉
October 2025: – 0.68%🔴
September 2025: -1.06%🔴
August 2025: -0.91% 🔴
July 2025: -0.75%🔴
June 2025: -1.21%🔴
May 2025: -0.98% 🔴
April 2025: -0.17% 🔴
March 2025: +0.42% 🟢
February 2025: +0.50% 🟢 (updated)
January 2025: 0.00% 🟡
December 2024: -0.46% 🔴
November 2024: -0.23% 🔴
October 2024: -0.7% 🔴
September 2024: -1.4% 🔴
August 2024: -0.7% 🔴
July 2024: -0.3% 🔴
June 2024: -0.5% 🔴
May 2024: -1.0% 🔴
April 2024: -0.2% 🔴 (revised from +0.5%)
March 2024: +1.4% 🟢
February 2024: +0.9% 🟢 (corrected)
January 2024: -0.3% 🔴
December 2023: -1.5% 🔴
November 2023: -1.1% 🔴
October 2023: -1.4% 🔴
19 red months out of 25. Headlines still say “balanced.” The chart says downtrend. We’re back near mid-2021 prices, inventory’s stacking, and absorption is weak.
🏡 Sales Volume – October 2025 Update
- September closed at 848 sales. October ticked up to 989 — +141 MoM (+16.6%).
- For comparison: October 2021 posted 1,752 sales — one of the busiest on record. This October was just over half of that (~56%).
Context on 2025 so far
- May: slowest May (ex-2020) in 20 years
- June: slowest June on record
- July: 2nd slowest July in 20 years
- August: 2nd slowest August since 2008
- September: weak at 848 sales
A small October bounce, but demand is still low and sellers are continually selling less than the last sale for a very long time now.
📈 Active Listings – October 2025
📈 Active Listings – October 2025
- ALL INVENTORY (Detached & Strata) fell from 7,937 in September to 7,506 in October
- Monthly change: −431 listings (−5.4%)
- Rank: 2nd highest October on record — only 2008 was higher
- It’s still one of the highest inventory months the Fraser Valley has ever recorded
The market has clearly shifted and feels flooded. Expect a wave of de-listings through winter as sellers prep to re-list in spring — which, given today’s levels, points to an exceptionally high-inventory spring. Odds-on a new record.
🏢 Condo Market – Flooded and Flat (October)
- Active condo listings fell from 2,527 in September to 2,401 in October
- Monthly change: −126 (−5.0%)
- Record check: Still the highest October on record by a mile
- Only May, June, July, and September 2025 pushed higher peak levels this cycle
For comparison
- 📅 October 2024: 2,190
- 📅 June 2010: 1,996
- 📅 October 2025: 2,401 — comfortably above both
Why it’s still tight for sellers
🔻 Negative cash flow keeps squeezing investors. Can’t hold without burning.
🔻 Sales remain weak
🔻 Condo values are down ~15–20% from peak
🔻 Rates still bite
CONDO INVENTORY ⬇️
Condo inventory continues to SHATTER inventory records and remember that all the brand new pre-construction inventory doesn’t even appear on MLS for the most part and that’s not even included in these numbers.
📊 Sales Ratios – October 2025
- Overall absorption rose from 10.7% to 13.2% – a +2.5 pts bump. Marginal improvement, but it matters.
By segment
- Condos: 12.4% – off the floor, still fragile.
- Townhomes: 18.6% – up from 13.5% prior month, strongest of all product types.
- Detached: Mixed – activity clustered at sharp price points; over-ask dreams still DOA.
Read
- ✔️ Still buyer-leaning overall, but less lopsided than September
- ✔️ Investor condos remain under pressure
- ✔️ Townhomes are the relative bright spot
- ✔️ Sellers: price to today, not last spring
Absorption up to 13.2%. Condos 12.4%, Townhomes 18.6% – strongest segment. Momentum’s better, but buyers still have leverage.
📉 Where Does the Market Go From Here?
The Bank of Canada trimmed rates 0.25% last month. That follows a 0.25% cut in September – two in a row. Policy rate sits at 2.25% now.
And Tiff Macklem wasn’t exactly rosy. He basically said if Canada doesn’t fix productivity and investment, living standards will slip — central-bank-speak for “brace for less unless policy changes.” Doesn’t exactly spell prosperity!
Reality check
- Inflation is still high with CPI – Median 3.2% (Trim 3.1%) and underlying pressures aren’t “done.” I expect this to continue to increase under our new budget for several reasons. Not good.
- Bond yields aren’t collapsing. Fixed rates haven’t gone down
Can cuts save the market?
- Cuts help the landing, not a moonshot. Think slower slide, not reversal, unless rates head much lower. Investors still won’t touch a rental property when it’s negative cashflow and depreciating for the next several years most likely. This used to be 30% of the market once upon a time!
Fundamentals still bite
- Productivity and capital flight are the choke points — not just rates. Macklem’s been waving that flag. Bottom line, if we don’t see the complete and total repeal of all the anti-energy bills we are cooked. We don’t have time to waste on this. We have lost an estimated $350B – $800B over the last 10 years of Liberals in power due to specifically these energy policies. Right now we are denying $30B a year in revenue because we have a pipeline bam and an offshore tanker ban. These policies are crushing us and nothing else we do will measure up to the weight of doing this. The rest of just fake news and pennies on the dollar. And for the climate fanatics out there, take your own UN numbers of carbon production and Canada only produces 1.4% of the world’s emissions. China is 35%. If we completely cripple ourselves and continue to have the 37/38th WORST growth of GDP per capita in a decade by trying to bring this number down…even 50%…we are removing .7% of the world’s emissions and guess who will make up that energy deficit? A dirtier country on coal like China, therefore increasing outputs of carbon GLOBALLY and making us POOR. Until this concept penetrates we are screwed, end of story.
- My take
- Will cuts rescue housing? No.
- Will they cushion it? Some.
- Stability this winter? Maybe, if we get more relief and better policy that actually attracts investment. Global News
Who’s winning right now
- Upsizers. These are the biggest rockstars who are getting into houses from condos and townhomes for $350,000 under the peak prices while selling only $50,000 under peakk prices, being measurable $300,000 richer today than if they had decided to upsize just THREE YEARS AGO! Let’s go upsizers! If you’re upsizing, contact me and we can explore your options!
If you are downsizing then also contact me so we can see how best to protect you from the biggest losses!
📽️ For more context, check out these two videos:
1. Canada’s Housing Crash Could Last 12 Years
2. Upsizers Are Winning Big Right Now
