We’re now a couple months into the year, and the market is starting to show its hand. January is usually a bit of a transition month, but by the time February wraps up we typically have a much better sense of the direction things are heading.
And so far, the story is pretty clear.
Sales did increase slightly compared to January, but the bigger picture matters. Even with that bump in activity, this was still the second slowest February in the past 26 years.
At the same time, supply is beginning to build. New listings are already starting off higher than we’ve seen since around 2015, and we are still early in the spring ramp-up. If this pace continues, there’s a real chance inventory could reach levels we haven’t seen in years as we move into the busy season.
That shift is already showing up in the numbers. February finished with nearly seven months of inventory, the highest February level in 26 years.
The sales-to-active ratio also improved slightly, moving from 9% in January to about 12% in February. Technically that’s an improvement, but it still leaves the market firmly in buyer’s market territory.
Prices continue to feel that pressure. Homes that are priced correctly and show well are still moving, but anything even slightly out of line with the market is sitting longer and often chasing price reductions.
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📊 Fraser Valley Market Update —March 2026
We’ve now recorded ten consecutive months of HPI declines, extending the downtrend that started after the spring peak.
💸 Prices:
We’ve now recorded eleven consecutive months of HPI declines, extending the downtrend that began after the spring peak.
The HPI dropped again this month, falling from $897,200 to $895,100.
That’s a $2,100 decline in a single month, or roughly -0.23% for March.
Since the April peak, prices are now down $80,700.
And here’s the part that really matters.
We are now sitting right around April 2021 price levels.
April 2021 HPI: $905,900
Current HPI: $895,100
That puts today’s prices $10,800 below April 2021, meaning nearly five years of price growth has effectively been erased.
If prices continue drifting lower from here, we could soon be revisiting March 2021 price levels.
📉 Trend Check
22 red months out of the last 27
Prices are now down approximately 24% from the March 2022 peak
Inventory remains elevated
Absorption is weak
The rate of decline has accelerated over the past year
The chart continues to say the same thing. This is a clear downtrend. With current inventory levels and sales ratios, it will take a meaningful shift in market conditions to reverse course.
This is not a market that turns quietly.
🏡 Sales Volume – February 2026 Context
Focusing strictly on February sales across the full FVREB dataset, here’s how this year stacks up historically.
February 2026 recorded 737 sales, which represents a noticeable increase from January’s 530 sales.
However, the broader historical context is what matters.
Even with that increase, February 2026 ranks as the 2nd slowest February in the past 26 years.
Out of the full historical dataset:
February 2026 sits firmly near the bottom of the list, despite the normal seasonal lift that usually occurs between January and February.
Historical context
Slowest February on record:
February 2009, during the depths of the Global Financial Crisis
Strongest February on record:
February 2021, when pandemic stimulus and ultra-low interest rates drove demand to extreme levels
This puts February 2026 firmly in the bottom tier historically, even after the expected seasonal bump from January.
It reinforces what we are seeing on the ground. Buyer activity remains cautious, inventory continues to build, and demand has not yet returned in a meaningful way.
Even by February standards, which normally bring a clear pickup in activity, this year still stands out as notably weak.
📈 Active Listings – February 2026
Active listings (detached and attached combined) rose again in February, increasing from 5,687 at the end of January to 6,106.
That’s an increase of:
+419 listings month over month
Roughly +7.4%, continuing the steady buildup in supply as we move closer to the spring market.
Rather than inventory tightening, supply continues to expand early in the year.ys, supply is already rebuilding early in the year.
📊 February Inventory in Historical Context
When we isolate January inventory levels across the full FVREB dataset, January 2026 stands out clearly.
- January 2026 ranks as the 2nd highest January for active listings on record
- The only higher January was January 2009, during the Global Financial Crisis
In other words, even before spring inventory normally ramps up, we are already sitting near historical extremes for supply.
When we isolate February inventory levels across the full FVREB dataset, February 2026 stands out clearly.
February 2026 ranks as the 2nd highest February for active listings on record.
The only higher February was February 2009, during the Global Financial Crisis, when inventory reached 6,439 listings.
In other words, even before the typical spring listing surge, we are already sitting near historical extremes for supply.
Best vs Worst Februarys
Lowest February inventory on record:
February 2021, during the pandemic-driven supply crunch
Highest February inventory on record:
February 2009 with 6,439 listings
February 2026:
Second highest February inventory ever recorded with 6,106 listings
This is not just seasonal inventory returning. Supply is already elevated before the spring surge normally arrives.
If demand does not improve meaningfully, spring 2026 inventory could push toward levels we have not seen in decades.
🏢 Condo Market – Still Oversupplied
The condo market continues to be the most pressured segment.
Even with the normal seasonal listing cycle, condo inventory remains historically elevated. It’s also important to remember that a large portion of new and pre-construction condo supply never appears on MLS, meaning the true level of supply is likely much higher than these numbers suggest.
For condo sellers, this remains an extremely competitive environment. Pricing, presentation, and positioning matter more than ever, because the margin for error is thin and buyers have more options than they’ve had in years.
High supply + weak sales = continued downward pressure on prices.
CONDO INVENTORY⬇️
Condo inventory continues to shatter historical records.
And it’s important to remember that a huge portion of brand-new pre-construction inventory never appears on MLS.
That means the numbers we’re seeing here likely understate the true level of supply in the condo market.
In other words, actual condo inventory is almost certainly higher than what the data shows.
This remains the most oversupplied segment of the market, and it continues to face the greatest pricing pressure moving forward.
📊 Sales Ratios – February 2026
Sales ratios improved in February, rising from 9.3% to 12.0%.
That’s a noticeable bounce from the extremely weak start to the year, but context still matters. Even with the increase, the market remains firmly in buyers’ territory.
This is more of a seasonal lift than a fundamental shift in demand.
By Segment
Condos:
Sales ratio rose to 13.3%, up from 10.2% in January.
Some activity returned as buyers stepped back in, but inventory remains heavy, and competition between listings is still intense.
Townhomes:
🔻Sales ratio increased to 15.8%, up from 12.0%.
Townhomes continue to be the healthiest segment, but conditions are still hovering near the edge of buyer territory.
Detached:
🔻Sales ratio moved up to 9.3%, from 7.4% last month.
Detached homes remain the weakest segment, with buyers staying extremely selective and price sensitive.
📌 What This Means
✔️February brought a seasonal improvement in absorption
✔️All product types saw activity increase slightly
✔️ Condos remain vulnerable due to ongoing oversupply
✔️Townhomes are still the strongest segment, but not immune
✔️Detached homes remain under the most pressure
The broader takeaway is that while sales activity improved modestly, it has not been enough to meaningfully tighten the market.
With inventory continuing to climb, buyers still hold the advantage for now.
📊 Looking Ahead – Spring Test
Coming into the year, there was some cautious optimism that the real estate market might find its footing early in 2026.
So far, the data hasn’t supported that.
Prices have now declined for 11 consecutive months, sales activity remains historically weak, and inventory continues to build faster than demand.
March will now become the real test.
Historically, roughly 80% of the past 26 years have seen the seasonal price peak occur between March and May. In other words, the next few months are typically when the market shows its strongest pricing momentum of the year.
That window is now approaching quickly.
Could prices stabilize or even see a small seasonal bounce? It’s certainly possible. Spring activity often brings a short-term lift in both sales and pricing.
But given the current backdrop of elevated inventory, weak absorption, and ongoing price declines, it’s difficult to imagine a strong upward move developing this year.
A modest seasonal bump is the more realistic scenario.
For now, the data continues to point to the same conclusion: supply remains high, demand remains cautious, and the market is still searching for its floor.
The next 60–90 days should give us a much clearer answer.