Hope everyone had a fantastic December! I’m genuinely excited for the new year ahead.
It’s a fresh start, and after the holidays, I’m recharged and ready to tackle whatever 2026 throws our way. Family time over Christmas was gold, as always.Before we crunch the numbers, though, let’s kick things off with some fun positive wins from the team. Despite the market being a total grind, we’re out there hustling and closing deals. Here’s a quick highlight reel!
CLICK TO WATCH FULL REEL
Now, on to a couple of my latest videos from last month that went pretty viral. If you’re already following me on social media, you might’ve caught them otherwise, hit the links below for the full scoop.
But enough warm fuzzies – let’s cut straight to the no-BS stats. December was an absolute bloodbath for the market, making November look like a walk in the park. Prices tanked harder, inventory stayed bloated, and sales? Forget about it.
📊 Fraser Valley Market Update — December 2025
No fluff here – diving right into the numbers.
We’ve now recorded nine consecutive months of HPI declines since the spring peak.
💸 Prices:
The HPI dropped again in December, falling from $912,400 → $905,900.That’s a $6,500 drop in one month, which equals a -0.71% decline for December.Since the April high, prices are now down $69,900.And here’s the real headline:
We’re now below the bottom of the 2022–2023 correction.• January 2023 trough: $933,000• Today (Dec 2025): $905,900• That puts us $27,100 below the worst recent low after we have EIGHT interest rate hikes in a row.We’ve officially rewound to April 2021 price levels (HPI then: $905,900).That’s 4.5 years of gains erased
20 red months out of the last 25.
The chart says downtrend – prices back to mid-2021, inventory stacking, absorption weak, things have to change significantly to reverse course with the inventory and sales ratios we’re seeing below! First have a look at the HPI Price – Prices are now down 24% (almost a full 1/4!) from the peak of March 20222. And we’re only 4.5 years from the peak and it doesn’t look like we’ve turned any corners. Decline has accelerated this past year.
🏡 Sales Volume – December 2025 Update
December sales came in at 792, down from 827 in November.That’s a drop of 35 sales, which equals a -4.2% month-over-month decline.For context:• December 2020: 1,815 sales (one of the busiest Decembers ever recorded)• December 2025: 792 sales (about 56% lower)So this past December ran at less than half the pace of the peak pandemic-era December.
📉 Where Does December 2025 Rank Historically?
Using the full FVREB sales dataset (2005–2025), here is the ranking of all Decembers from lowest → highest:
- 2008 – 400
- 2012 – 527
- 2022 – 584
- 2006 – 683
- 2018 – 687
- 2011 – 726
- 2013 – 726
- 2023 – 730
- 2010 – 736
- 2025 – 792 ← This year
- 2007 – 801
- 2016 – 825
- 2024 – 858
- 2014 – 864
- 2005 – 942
- 2009 – 959
- 2019 – 1053
- 2017 – 1186
- 2015 – 1276
- 2021 – 1573
- 2020 – 1815
🔻 Result: December 2025 ranks as the 10th slowest December in 21 years
Overall we were middle-of-the-pack for sale in December ! That’s a huge improvement from November where we only had 35 more sales but it ranked the 6th slowest November on record. (9th is still better lol!)
📈 Active Listings – December 2025
Active listings (detached + attached combined) fell sharply again, dropping from 6,972 in November → 5,125 in December.That’s a decline of:–1,847 listings month-over-month–26.49% (a much steeper drop than November, as expected with seasonal delistings)Even with the big pullback, inventory remains historically elevated, and here’s the key stat:
🔻December 2025 ranks as the 2nd highest December for inventory in FVREB history. Only December 2008 had more active listings. So despite the holiday dip (totally normal – folks don’t want to move during winter or Christmas), the market is still heavy on supply, and sellers are up against it. Look for even more delistings wrapping up the year, but with these levels as a base, spring 2026 inventory could push toward all-time highs if trends hold.
🏢 Condo Market – Flooded, Falling, and Still Brutal (December Update)
Active condo listings dropped sharply again, falling from 2,260 in November → 1,661 in December.That’s a decline of:–599 listings MoM–26.5% (a way bigger pullback than November, typical for holiday delistings)Even with the steep dip, here’s the part sellers won’t love:
🔻 December 2025 ranks as the highest December for condo inventory in FVREB history. There has never been a December with this many active condo listings – not even during:
Also remember that all the brand new pre-construction inventory doesn’t even appear on MLS for the most part and that’s not even included in these numbers.
CONDO INVENTORY⬇️
Condo inventory continues to SHATTER inventory records and remember that all the brand new pre-construction inventory doesn’t even appear on MLS for the most part and that’s not even included in these numbers.
📊 Sales Ratios – December 2025
Absorption bounced back in December, rising from 11.9% → 15.5%. A welcome uptick – signaling a touch more buyer activity, though still firmly in buyers’ territory.
By Segment
Condos:
🔻 15.4% (up from 10.5%) Better momentum here, pulling out of the doldrums, but inventory overload keeps it vulnerable.
Townhomes:
🔻20.1% (up from 16.1%) Leading the pack as usual, with solid demand holding up—best performer by far.
Detached:
🔻 13.3% (up from 10.8%) A modest rebound; selective buyers are engaging, but only on well-priced gems.
📌 What This Means
✔️ Slight shift toward balance overall, with absorption climbing above 15%
✔️ Condos saw the biggest relative gain, easing some pressure but still the softest spot
✔️ Townhomes stay the standout, drawing consistent interest
✔️ Sellers: Pricing remains key – don’t chase old peaks, but the bump in activity is a positive signMomentum picked up across all product types – the October blip carried some legs into December, making it a bit more balanced than November. Nothing explosive, but better.
📉 Where Does the Market Go From Here?(January 2026 Outlook)
Okay folks, let’s talk about where things might head next. On the rate front, variable mortgages aren’t seeing much movement, and the Bank of Canada has pretty much hit pause after those two cuts in September and October. No big changes expected there anytime soon.
💡So, what’s really driving this?
Inflation’s still stubborn, with core numbers hanging above targets. Bond yields aren’t dropping enough to ease up fixed rates. Affordability? It’s barely shifted. Investors are out – getting hammered by bad cash flows. And the economy’s got bigger issues: lousy productivity, weak investment, capital heading for the exits. All that just keeps the pressure on.Plus, 2026’s bringing the massive mortgage renewal wave – about 30% of Big Five bank mortgages renewing, spiking from ~2% rates to 4-5%. That’s gonna hit household wallets hard, cut spending, and add even more drag to the market. Government policies aren’t helping one bit here.
❓Will rate cuts turn housing around?
No I highly doubt it..They could ease the slide a little, but without deep, consistent drops, we’re not reversing course. With the BoC on hold and these economic drags, it’s looking like a continued slow decline – no heroics in sight.Meanwhile, the Big Five banks are split on 2026 rates from the latest Bloomberg reports: some eyeing hikes (Scotiabank with 50 bps up in H2, RBC and National Bank from Q3), others calling for 1-2 cuts (BMO to 1.75%), and a few saying hold steady. Total uncertainty vibe.
🏡 But who’s actually coming out ahead in all this mess? Upsizers, first-time buyers, and lateral movers – big time.Upsizers, you’re absolutely winning right now.
You’re selling condos or townhomes just $40-50K off their peaks… and snagging detached homes $300-350K below highs.That adds up to a $250-300K affordability win over 2022-2023, rates notwithstanding. If upsizing’s your goal, this is one of the best opportunities in years.First-time buyers? This is your moment too – no insane bidding frenzies, avoiding those 20-offer chaos scenes and no-subject risks. Loads of inventory, negotiation power, and time to lock in before any shift.Lateral movers, you’re digging the relaxed pace: Sell without rush, buy thoughtfully, skip the high-stakes pressure cooker.Downsizers, we can strategize – right timing, spot-on pricing, and smart picks to avoid the steepest falls. Reach out, and we’ll map it out.