Hope everyone had a great November! I’m really looking forward to Christmas and the holidays ahead – it’s one of the few times of the year I get some real quality time with my family. I love it!
But with that said, let’s get into the real-talk stats!!
Last month was another rough one for the market, but before I dive into the numbers, here are a few videos from last month you can check out. If you follow me on social media, you may have already seen them – otherwise, I’ve included the links below.
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2. It’s not your Realtor, It’s your list price
3. Condo discounts 25%, Still goes under
4.40 Year Mortgage: 75% More Interest
5. Tenants Losing It over New Rules
6. Welfare Fraud is out of control
📊 Fraser Valley Market Update — November 2025
I’m skipping the fluff straight to the stats.
We’ve now logged Eight straight months of HPI declines since the spring peak.
💸 Prices:
The HPI fell again in November, dropping from $919,100 → $912,400.
That’s a $6,700 drop in one month, which equals a -0.73% decline for November.
Since the April high, prices are now down $63,400.
And here’s the real headline:
🔻 We’re now below the bottom of the 2022–2023 correction.
- January 2023 trough: $933,000
- Today (Nov 2025): $912,400
- That puts us $20,600 below the worst recent low after we have EIGHT interest rate hikes in a row.
We’ve officially rewound to May 2021 price levels (HPI then: $912,200).
That’s 4.5 years of gains erased.
Monthly Price Movements Recap:🔴📉
November 2025: -0.73% 🔴
October 2025: – 0.68%🔴
September 2025: -1.06%🔴
August 2025: -0.91% 🔴
July 2025: -0.75%🔴
June 2025: -1.21%🔴
May 2025: -0.98% 🔴
April 2025: -0.17% 🔴
March 2025: +0.42% 🟢
February 2025: +0.50% 🟢 (updated)
January 2025: 0.00% 🟡
December 2024: -0.46% 🔴
November 2024: -0.23% 🔴
October 2024: -0.7% 🔴
September 2024: -1.4% 🔴
August 2024: -0.7% 🔴
July 2024: -0.3% 🔴
June 2024: -0.5% 🔴
May 2024: -1.0% 🔴
April 2024: -0.2% 🔴 (revised from +0.5%)
March 2024: +1.4% 🟢
February 2024: +0.9% 🟢 (corrected)
January 2024: -0.3% 🔴
December 2023: -1.5% 🔴
November 2023: -1.1% 🔴
October 2023: -1.4% 🔴
19 red months out of the last 25.
Headlines still say “balanced.”
The chart says downtrend – prices back to mid-2021, inventory stacking, absorption weak.
🔥 Whalley – The Hardest-Hit Condo Market in the Fraser Valley
If you want to see which area is getting absolutely hammered the most right now, it’s Whalley – and it’s not even close. Condo prices here have fallen all the way back to 2018 levels, and as of the latest data, the benchmark is only about $17,000 higher than it was in 2018. On many one-bedroom units, the gap is even smaller.
This chart shows the full picture: a massive run-up from 2020 to 2022, followed by one of the steepest declines of any condo sub-market in the entire Fraser Valley. Investors are underwater, rent doesn’t cover the mortgage, and sellers are trapped between negative cash flow and shrinking equity.
Whalley is officially the worst-performing condo zone in the region – and unless demand returns in a big way, the pressure on pricing isn’t done yet.
🏡 Sales Volume – November 2025 Update
November sales came in at 828, down sharply from 988 in October.
That’s a drop of 160 sales, which equals a -16.2% month-over-month decline.
For context:
- November 2020: 1,922 sales (one of the busiest Novembers ever recorded)
- November 2025: 828 sales (about 56% lower)
So this past November ran at less than half the pace of the peak pandemic-era November.
📉 Where Does November 2025 Rank Historically?
Using your full FVREB sales dataset (2005–2025), here is the ranking of all Novembers from lowest → highest:
- 2008 – 437
- 2022 – 726
- 2012 – 754
- 2023 – 780
- 2013 – 827
- 2025 – 828 ← This year
- 2018 – 898
- 2011 – 927
- 2010 – 931
- 2014 – 933
- 2006 – 950
- 2024 – 1004
- 2007 – 1091
- 2016 – 1097
- 2019 – 1227
- 2009 – 1269
- 2005 – 1308
- 2017 – 1514
- 2015 – 1522
- 2021 – 1745
- 2020 – 1922
🔻 Result: November 2025 ranks as the 6th slowest November in 21 years.
Only 5 Novembers in the entire dataset posted fewer sales – meaning this month sits inside the bottom quartile historically.
A tough November overall – demand stepped back again, sales sit near two-decade lows, and sellers are still consistently selling for less than the last sale. The small October bump didn’t carry through.
📈 Active Listings – November 2025
Active listings (detached + strata combined) fell again, dropping from 7,515 in October → 6,960 in November.
That’s a decline of:
- –555 listings month-over-month
- –7.38% (a noticeably sharper drop than October)
Even with the pullback, inventory is still historically high, and here’s the key stat:
🔻 November 2025 ranks as the 2nd highest November for inventory in FVREB history.
Only November 2008 had more active listings.
So despite the seasonal dip, the market remains loaded with supply, and sellers continue to face stiff competition. Expect more de-listings over the holidays as people regroup for early 2025 – but given current levels, the spring inventory curve is still on track to be very high, possibly approaching record territory
🏢 Condo Market
Condo Market – Flooded, Falling, and Still Brutal (November Update)
Active condo listings dropped again, falling from 2,400 in October → 2,257 in November.
That’s a decline of:
- –143 listings MoM
- –6.0% (a bigger pullback than October)
Even with the dip, here’s the part sellers won’t love:
🔻 November 2025 ranks as the highest November for condo inventory in FVREB history.
There has never been a November with this many active condo listings – not even during:
- the 2018 downturn, or
- the 2010 slow cycle, or
- the 2022 correction.
This is officially record November inventory.
CONDO INVENTORY⬇️
Condo inventory continues to SHATTER inventory records and remember that all the brand new pre-construction inventory doesn’t even appear on MLS for the most part and that’s not even included in these numbers.
📊 Sales Ratios – November 2025
Absorption fell again in November, dropping from 13.1% → 11.9%.
A backward step — and a clear sign buyers still hold the leverage.
By Segment
Condos:
🔻 10.5% (down from 12.4%)
Still the weakest, still investor-heavy, still under pressure.
Townhomes:
🔻 16.1% (down from 18.6%)
Still the strongest product type, but losing momentum.
Detached:
🔻 10.8% (down from 11%)
Soft, selective, and entirely price-driven. Anything not razor-sharp sits.
📌 What This Means
✔️ Buyers’ market overall, with absorption sliding back under 12%
✔️ Condos remain the stress point — weakest ratios, most inventory, most downward pressure
✔️ Townhomes are the relative outperformer, but even they cooled
✔️ Sellers must price to today, not spring 2022 memories
Momentum softened across all product types — the brief improvement in October didn’t hold.
📉 Where Does the Market Go From Here? November Outlook
The Bank of Canada delivered two rate cuts in a row – September and October – but the momentum has stopped dead. Markets are no longer pricing in any additional cuts for the rest of the year, and several major banks and economists have now floated a scenario where we may not see a single rate cut in 2026.
A pretty wild shift from just a few months ago when the dominant narrative was “rates are about to fall aggressively.”
💡 What’s actually happening?
- Inflation is still sticky – underlying measures remain above target.
- Bond yields haven’t moved enough to drop fixed rates.
- Affordability hasn’t improved in a meaningful way.
- Investor demand is still nowhere — negative cash flow is killing the math.
- Domestic economic fundamentals (productivity, investment, capital flight) remain major headwinds.
❓ Can rate cuts save the housing market?
Short answer: No.
Rate cuts help soften the landing – they don’t reverse the cycle unless cuts become deep and sustained. With the BoC signaling caution and the economy struggling to attract investment, the best-case scenario is a slower slide, not a sudden rebound.
🏡 Who’s actually winning right now? Upsizers.
Upsizers are hands-down the biggest winners in today’s market.
They’re selling condos or townhomes that are only $40–50K off peak…
but buying detached homes that are $300–350K below peak.
That’s a $250–300K net improvement in affordability compared to 2022–2023 – even though rates are higher. If you’re upsizing, now is shockingly one of the best windows we’ve seen in years.
And if you’re downsizing, strategy matters even more. Timing, pricing, and product selection can protect you from the steepest parts of the decline — reach out and we’ll map out the best options.
🔎 Coming Soon: The Truth About Canada’s Land Claims Chaos (Buckle Up)
Alright – let’s talk about the circus no one in the mainstream wants to touch with a ten-foot pole. The massive, exploding, completely out-of-control wave of Indigenous land claims popping up across B.C. and the rest of Canada.
You’ve seen it:
Richmond.
Kamloops.
And now… everywhere else.
And if you think these things “just came out of nowhere,” think again. These claims have been cooking behind the scenes for years – sometimes a decade or more -buried under layers of bureaucracy, consultants, lawyers, DRIPA, (United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People Act) “reconciliation frameworks,” which essentially handed our country’s sovereignty over to the indigioness without question thus born the “reconciliation industry” on top of everything. The legal system was implicated within this too to further make these policies enshrined under our Supreme Court. Talk about hard to unravel.
And suddenly they’re all surfacing at once.
Total panic.
Zero transparency.
Supreme Court involved.
Everyone freaking out.
And homeowners caught in the middle wondering if indefeasible title – the foundation of Canadian property rights – actually means anything anymore.
Spoiler: right now it sure doesn’t feel like it.
Let’s talk about reconciliation for a second – the real version, not the glossy brochure handed out by Ottawa.
We’ve had years of “truth” that turned out to be half-truths, assumptions, media hysteria, political theatre, and yes – outright false claims (looking at the infamous “mass graves” narrative that somehow led to billions in payouts, nationwide outrage, and not a single confirmed excavation).
Who actually benefitted?
Not the people living on reserves.
Not the communities dealing with poverty, addiction, lack of clean water, or hopeless leadership.
Nope – it was the same group of chiefs, councils, activists, consultants, lawyers, and “experts” who always cash in. The residents – the real Indigenous people who deserve better – are still getting crumbs. Just Google how many bands still have “boil advisories” on their water supply! For 30B a year folks!
But we’re all told to shut up, stop asking questions, and hand over more billions while surrendering land like it’s a clearance sale.
Meanwhile, Canada is supposed to be giving $30 billion a year to a system where no one even agrees on what “reconciliation” means, who qualifies, what the limits are, or what accountability looks like. And now we’re layering land back, UNDRIP, and Supreme Court challenges that threaten the entire concept of private property.
Call me crazy, but maybe we should slow down and ask a few questions before we re-engineer the entire country.
Like:
What does reconciliation actually mean?
Where are the audits?
Who is accountable?
Why are Canadians expected to sacrifice everything – land, money, rights, title – while the same cycle of mismanagement continues?
Why are we ignoring the difference between genuine Indigenous rights and the grifters who weaponize identity politics to cash in?
Because yes – there ARE grifters.
There ARE opportunists.
There ARE people gaming the system.
And pretending otherwise doesn’t make you compassionate, it makes you naive.
I believe honouring actual Indigenous people and their history in a fair reasonable way.
I don’t believe in honouring opportunism dressed up as activism.
So yeah, I’ll be covering this fully. Not the sanitized government version. The real version. The messy version. The version that asks the questions you’re not “supposed” to ask in polite society.
This will likely be my first long-form YouTube deep dive in January once I finish wading through the mountains of documents, lawsuits, DRIPA language, and the political landmines buried in this whole thing.
Stay tuned. It’s going to be big.